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A time to hunt?
#1 Posted : Sunday, March 19, 2023 9:28:57 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 379
The last decade saw the NSE Index fall from almost 5000 points to the current 1500s. Those that rode the tide must be worth roughly 1/3 of what they invested a decade ago coupled with an over 50% reduction in their investment value via inflation (thus based on the fall of NSE 20 and 10 year Inflation, Ksh 5M invested 10 years ago in NSE on average would be having a purchasing power value of Ksh 750,000).

Am afraid this may get worse as it's being seen with Safcom (lack of Board action on expiring CEO contract coupled with recent board changes, falling Ksh value, Dollar shortage, maandano/demonstrations with safcom being flagged as one of the companies for Azimio boycott etc).

This coming week will be interesting as the price of most equities get tested further by the demonstrations.

Will it be a time to hunt again?

Time will tell.

Happy Hunting

#2 Posted : Tuesday, March 21, 2023 10:10:41 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Very pertinent observations. The NSE has proven to be a leader in the value destruction over the last 15 or so years.

Having said that you pose a very interesting question. Is it time to hunt? I dare say YES.

A number of counters on the NSE offer very enticing value propositions when you consider various metrics - Dividend yield, Earnings yields (or PE ratios), growth, Price to intrinsic value etc. Some companies are now trading at ridiculously low ratios.

That is not so say that prices may not continue to fall. They most likely will, considering the current economic and political climate.

But at some point in the not far future, the tide will turn. And as they say, fortune favours those who are prepared. I for one want to be ready when/before the turnaround happens.

Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#3 Posted : Tuesday, March 21, 2023 1:43:59 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,213
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli

i love charts, for they speak louder than words.
Looking at the chart above, the NSE20 started going up/rising in October 2002 after Raila said Kibaki tosha.
From lows of 1005 in September 2002, it climbed to 1100 in November 2002, a month after those positive news, and has never gone back there to date(we might just get back there though seeing we are only 400 points above this). Things might get tougher before they get better.
At this point, the question is, do we have someone, a Joshua, who can lead to a generational NSE20 bottoming out, immediately his name is proposed as the next President. The current one is a tenderpreneur and i doubt he has any understanding in matters financial markets/financial assets. Kibaki was also a seasoned and celebrated economist, oversaw prudence in financial management and lastly, he appointed professionals rather than dimwits to oversee ministries.
Until we have such a person as a possible successor, the NSE will continue trading range bound as it is currently doing.
#4 Posted : Wednesday, March 22, 2023 12:14:45 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,529
The charts for kshs/$ and NSE are starting to align for the bottom to start forming. It's been a wild ride to correct the Kibaki era impulse wave. Ruto is lucky to be in that spot as the stars align.

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