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Centum FY2022 - FY2026
VituVingiSana
#1 Posted : Monday, June 28, 2021 9:22:26 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,526
Location: Nairobi
Visited Two Rivers (on a Saturday in June 2021) as part of my ongoing DD.


The Mall
Quite busy (lots of young people) but that doesn't always translate into sales for shops. There was an event going on which seemed to attract a lot of young people.

Carrefour was busy and the floor was teeming with people/shoppers.
The food court was quite busy.
The ground floor (CK Square/waterfront) had a lot of activity. Some musical group was playing. Probably related to the event going on.

The upper floors were NOT busy and one could have driven a car though it without any drama! Lots of empty storefronts. I wonder how busy it is during weekdays. It would not surprise me if some of the banks left ATMs in place but didn't have banking halls.

Residential

Cascadia is coming together. You can see the construction from Limuru Rd and from the mall. Multiple blocks coming up but delivery . They are marketed as located in Gigiri. Delivery of the first block, IMHO, is FY23.

One tower of Riverbank looks almost done but finishing can take longer. Good to see a local (not Chinese) contractor on site. I doubt the 2nd tower will start any time soon unless the economy picks up and global travel re-starts. I can see they will be attractive for UN and embassy personnel. Delivery, IMHO, is 2H22.

Mzizi has been sectioned off but the ground has not broken yet BUT IMHO sales are probably good. Centum has been pushing these to bulk buyers as an alternate to Ruaka. Delivery of Phase 1 is FY2025. Patience required.

I couldn't figure out where the 35mn+ "The Loft" houses (not high-rises) were but some have broken ground. Those will be a tough sell for the remainder.

Centum said in earlier presentations that they break ground (for a building) once they get 30% sales. Seems they have managed that for all 4 projects in Two Rivers. The nature of the buildings means they will have some empty units upon completion but they can rent these out.

Applause Applause Applause

Vipingo

Awali has been handed over (in 2H 2020-21) so we should see the "profits" (not cashflow) coming through. It seems they have a few units that haven't sold or repossessed after the buyers fell through.
No signs of Phase 2 yet but perhaps they haven't reached 30% sales yet.

1255 Palm Phase 2 has started. Phase 1 is almost complete and will be delivered in in 3-6 months in FY22.

Kingswood plots being sold at 2.5mn+ each.

Also 20mn+ plots near the ocean/cliff. These may take a while though! Pole pole is OK given there are a lot of plots to be sold. These will compete with Vipingo Ridge.

Uganda Pearl Marina
That's a trip I would love to take!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
watesh
#2 Posted : Monday, June 28, 2021 10:38:17 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 878
Location: Kenya
VituVingiSana wrote:
Visited Two Rivers (on a Saturday in June 2021) as part of my ongoing DD.


The Mall
Quite busy (lots of young people) but that doesn't always translate into sales for shops. There was an event going on which seemed to attract a lot of young people.

Carrefour was busy and the floor was teeming with people/shoppers.
The food court was quite busy.
The ground floor (CK Square/waterfront) had a lot of activity. Some musical group was playing. Probably related to the event going on.

The upper floors were NOT busy and one could have driven a car though it without any drama! Lots of empty storefronts. I wonder how busy it is during weekdays. It would not surprise me if some of the banks left ATMs in place but didn't have banking halls.

Residential

Cascadia is coming together. You can see the construction from Limuru Rd and from the mall. Multiple blocks coming up but delivery . They are marketed as located in Gigiri. Delivery of the first block, IMHO, is FY23.

One tower of Riverbank looks almost done but finishing can take longer. Good to see a local (not Chinese) contractor on site. I doubt the 2nd tower will start any time soon unless the economy picks up and global travel re-starts. I can see they will be attractive for UN and embassy personnel. Delivery, IMHO, is 2H22.

Mzizi has been sectioned off but the ground has not broken yet BUT IMHO sales are probably good. Centum has been pushing these to bulk buyers as an alternate to Ruaka. Delivery of Phase 1 is FY2025. Patience required.

I couldn't figure out where the 35mn+ "The Loft" houses (not high-rises) were but some have broken ground. Those will be a tough sell for the remainder.

Centum said in earlier presentations that they break ground (for a building) once they get 30% sales. Seems they have managed that for all 4 projects in Two Rivers. The nature of the buildings means they will have some empty units upon completion but they can rent these out.

Applause Applause Applause

Vipingo

Awali has been handed over (in 2H 2020-21) so we should see the "profits" (not cashflow) coming through. It seems they have a few units that haven't sold or repossessed after the buyers fell through.
No signs of Phase 2 yet but perhaps they haven't reached 30% sales yet.

1255 Palm Phase 2 has started. Phase 1 is almost complete and will be delivered in in 3-6 months in FY22.

Kingswood plots being sold at 2.5mn+ each.

Also 20mn+ plots near the ocean/cliff. These may take a while though! Pole pole is OK given there are a lot of plots to be sold. These will compete with Vipingo Ridge.

Uganda Pearl Marina
That's a trip I would love to take!


I wonder which year the mall will be profitable or rather start paying dividends to Centum. The occupancy is high enough but Two Rivers Lifestyle (Company holding the mall) still has a mega debt and huge interest costs.
Centum Re has a target of 16bn cash returns over the 4.0 strategy. That is 3.2bn per year on average. So far with the progress, it seems doable especially if they can really get the land sales in Vipingo going
watesh
#3 Posted : Monday, June 28, 2021 11:33:16 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 878
Location: Kenya
From my small research, these are Centum's investments to look out for in the Private Equity segment which are yet to pay a dividend to Centum but are very promising:

Sidian Bank: Q1 finally was able to hit 100m in profit, the highest since interest rate caps. Hoping the bank can finally achieve a return on equity of at least 15% by the end of the 4.0 strategy.

Greenblade Growers: Going by one of Mworia's tweets they have approved to increase production capacity by 50%. 2019 they had a major challenge with the soil mineral components that caused the leaves to wither hence high rejection rate when exporting. This was overcomed in 2020 and they were able to achieve over 80% of the previous year's volume despite air cargo issues (closure of airports). They stated it may be paying a dividend to Centum going forward and I heard the Greenblade CEO stating that their product is very high margin (64%).

Tribus TSG - According to an article by Capital FM, they hit 1bn in revenue from sales of apparel and interior decor materials. It is also project to earn a profit of over 100 million which is a five-fold return on investment.

ACE Holdings - This holds Sabis Runda which is projected to break even by next year. High demand for international schools will fuel growth in future. Dividends will start flowing most probably by FY23

From my very rough estimates, these may soon add an extra 250 million in dividends to Centum by the end of 4.0 strategy. Centum has other mature companies like Isuzu, Nas Servair and Longhorn which have been regular dividend payers to Centum.

VituVingiSana
#4 Posted : Tuesday, June 29, 2021 9:18:01 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,526
Location: Nairobi
watesh wrote:
From my small research, these are Centum's investments to look out for in the Private Equity segment which are yet to pay a dividend to Centum but are very promising:

Sidian Bank: Q1 finally was able to hit 100m in profit, the highest since interest rate caps. Hoping the bank can finally achieve a return on equity of at least 15% by the end of the 4.0 strategy.

Greenblade Growers: Going by one of Mworia's tweets they have approved to increase production capacity by 50%. 2019 they had a major challenge with the soil mineral components that caused the leaves to wither hence high rejection rate when exporting. This was overcomed in 2020 and they were able to achieve over 80% of the previous year's volume despite air cargo issues (closure of airports). They stated it may be paying a dividend to Centum going forward and I heard the Greenblade CEO stating that their product is very high margin (64%).

Tribus TSG - According to an article by Capital FM, they hit 1bn in revenue from sales of apparel and interior decor materials. It is also project to earn a profit of over 100 million which is a five-fold return on investment.

ACE Holdings - This holds Sabis Runda which is projected to break even by next year. High demand for international schools will fuel growth in future. Dividends will start flowing most probably by FY23

From my very rough estimates, these may soon add an extra 250 million in dividends to Centum by the end of 4.0 strategy. Centum has other mature companies like Isuzu, Nas Servair and Longhorn which have been regular dividend payers to Centum.

Thanks. I was looking to discuss these at some point and your insights are helpful.

TribusTSG - I think the article didn't captured all the info i.e. the 1bn turnover may include the "security business" aside from sales of apparel and interior decor materials. And some sales are probably internal i.e. to Centum's projects.

Greenblade is exciting given the growing market for herbs in the EU as people's tastes change to eating better vs fast foods.

Schools - That concerns me given the proliferation of high-end schools. There's one under construction in Kitengela. Another in Westlands. Brookhouse and Braeburn aren't sitting still either.

I hope someone with a lot more info/knowledge on Isuzu can tell us more about it. Make it a post, within this thread, on its own.
NAS Servair is (almost) dead in the water until global travel picks up.

Longhorn deserves its own post (separate or within this thread). Schools have opened and books (inventory) will be delivered. My concern is payment by GoK/counties/schools given the fiscal issues.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#5 Posted : Tuesday, June 29, 2021 9:24:19 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,526
Location: Nairobi
On the mall, I wish we had it's P&L and Balance Sheet so we could look at the profitability or lack thereof.
I hope the loans are being serviced from internal cashflow vs borrowing (& cash injections).

Even if it is not profitable but there is constant cashflow to service debt then it will slowly become "free and clear"

The North Tower was empty and has been so since it opened. Office space is no longer what it used to be. I "hope" (not a strategy!) the 1,000+ residents of Cascadia, Riverbank, Mzizi, Loft will provide demand for these offices. Victoria (office) Towers seemed quiet too but it was a Saturday.

Results should be out before 31 July! Watching keenly.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kichwa_kibov
#6 Posted : Tuesday, June 29, 2021 11:57:15 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/24/2012
Posts: 15
Location: Tatu city
Quote:
I hope someone with a lot more info/knowledge on Isuzu can tell us more about it. Make it a post, within this thread, on its own.



There's some in depth videos on the Centum Capital Partners Youtube channel, that give some more info on the private equity businesses, including Isuzu.
The smart man learns the truth and screams it at others to try to change their mind to his own lifestyle’s detriment. The wise man learns the truth and applies it to his life. Others learn the truth from watching him.
VituVingiSana
#7 Posted : Tuesday, June 29, 2021 12:45:48 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,526
Location: Nairobi
kichwa_kibov wrote:
Quote:
I hope someone with a lot more info/knowledge on Isuzu can tell us more about it. Make it a post, within this thread, on its own.


There's some in depth videos on the Centum Capital Partners Youtube channel, that give some more info on the private equity businesses, including Isuzu.
Centum has great Investor Relations. It's a matter of time before the good stuff starts coming through. I am buying what I can manage at 16 but cash is tight.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#8 Posted : Tuesday, June 29, 2021 7:29:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,790
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
On the mall, I wish we had it's P&L and Balance Sheet so we could look at the profitability or lack thereof.
I hope the loans are being serviced from internal cashflow vs borrowing (& cash injections).

Even if it is not profitable but there is constant cashflow to service debt then it will slowly become "free and clear"

The North Tower was empty and has been so since it opened. Office space is no longer what it used to be. I "hope" (not a strategy!) the 1,000+ residents of Cascadia, Riverbank, Mzizi, Loft will provide demand for these offices. Victoria (office) Towers seemed quiet too but it was a Saturday.

Results should be out before 31 July! Watching keenly.


Two Rivers mall they usually mention their share of profit or loss in the annual report since its an associate.
In last year's annual report the loss was around ksh.2bn

Results should be out before July,kwani they have asked for an extension coz it's supposed to be 30 June.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Tuesday, June 29, 2021 10:53:04 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,526
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
On the mall, I wish we had it's P&L and Balance Sheet so we could look at the profitability or lack thereof.
I hope the loans are being serviced from internal cashflow vs borrowing (& cash injections).

Even if it is not profitable but there is constant cashflow to service debt then it will slowly become "free and clear"

The North Tower was empty and has been so since it opened. Office space is no longer what it used to be. I "hope" (not a strategy!) the 1,000+ residents of Cascadia, Riverbank, Mzizi, Loft will provide demand for these offices. Victoria (office) Towers seemed quiet too but it was a Saturday.

Results should be out before 31 July! Watching keenly.


Two Rivers mall they usually mention their share of profit or loss in the annual report since its an associate.
In last year's annual report the loss was around ksh.2bn

Results should be out before July,kwani they have asked for an extension coz it's supposed to be 30 June.
30th June? Really? How did you figure that?

The loss last year was a FV Loss. Which is why the Balance Sheet and CF Statement are important for a better understanding.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#10 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2021 8:28:45 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,790
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
On the mall, I wish we had it's P&L and Balance Sheet so we could look at the profitability or lack thereof.
I hope the loans are being serviced from internal cashflow vs borrowing (& cash injections).

Even if it is not profitable but there is constant cashflow to service debt then it will slowly become "free and clear"

The North Tower was empty and has been so since it opened. Office space is no longer what it used to be. I "hope" (not a strategy!) the 1,000+ residents of Cascadia, Riverbank, Mzizi, Loft will provide demand for these offices. Victoria (office) Towers seemed quiet too but it was a Saturday.

Results should be out before 31 July! Watching keenly.


Two Rivers mall they usually mention their share of profit or loss in the annual report since its an associate.
In last year's annual report the loss was around ksh.2bn

Results should be out before July,kwani they have asked for an extension coz it's supposed to be 30 June.
30th June? Really? How did you figure that?

The loss last year was a FV Loss. Which is why the Balance Sheet and CF Statement are important for a better understanding.


30th June is three months after close of financial year.
Centum financial year ends on March 31
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#11 Posted : Wednesday, June 30, 2021 9:06:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,526
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
On the mall, I wish we had it's P&L and Balance Sheet so we could look at the profitability or lack thereof.
I hope the loans are being serviced from internal cashflow vs borrowing (& cash injections).

Even if it is not profitable but there is constant cashflow to service debt then it will slowly become "free and clear"

The North Tower was empty and has been so since it opened. Office space is no longer what it used to be. I "hope" (not a strategy!) the 1,000+ residents of Cascadia, Riverbank, Mzizi, Loft will provide demand for these offices. Victoria (office) Towers seemed quiet too but it was a Saturday.

Results should be out before 31 July! Watching keenly.


Two Rivers mall they usually mention their share of profit or loss in the annual report since its an associate.
In last year's annual report the loss was around ksh.2bn

Results should be out before July,kwani they have asked for an extension coz it's supposed to be 30 June.
30th June? Really? How did you figure that?

The loss last year was a FV Loss. Which is why the Balance Sheet and CF Statement are important for a better understanding.


30th June is three months after close of financial year.
Centum financial year ends on March 31
Is this according to the NSE/CMA guidelines?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#12 Posted : Thursday, July 01, 2021 9:18:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,157
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
On the mall, I wish we had it's P&L and Balance Sheet so we could look at the profitability or lack thereof.
I hope the loans are being serviced from internal cashflow vs borrowing (& cash injections).

Even if it is not profitable but there is constant cashflow to service debt then it will slowly become "free and clear"

The North Tower was empty and has been so since it opened. Office space is no longer what it used to be. I "hope" (not a strategy!) the 1,000+ residents of Cascadia, Riverbank, Mzizi, Loft will provide demand for these offices. Victoria (office) Towers seemed quiet too but it was a Saturday.

Results should be out before 31 July! Watching keenly.


Two Rivers mall they usually mention their share of profit or loss in the annual report since its an associate.
In last year's annual report the loss was around ksh.2bn

Results should be out before July,kwani they have asked for an extension coz it's supposed to be 30 June.
30th June? Really? How did you figure that?

The loss last year was a FV Loss. Which is why the Balance Sheet and CF Statement are important for a better understanding.


30th June is three months after close of financial year.
Centum financial year ends on March 31


Non financial institutions are given a 4 months window, last i checked.
Markets
VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Thursday, July 01, 2021 9:44:22 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,526
Location: Nairobi
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
On the mall, I wish we had it's P&L and Balance Sheet so we could look at the profitability or lack thereof.
I hope the loans are being serviced from internal cashflow vs borrowing (& cash injections).

Even if it is not profitable but there is constant cashflow to service debt then it will slowly become "free and clear"

The North Tower was empty and has been so since it opened. Office space is no longer what it used to be. I "hope" (not a strategy!) the 1,000+ residents of Cascadia, Riverbank, Mzizi, Loft will provide demand for these offices. Victoria (office) Towers seemed quiet too but it was a Saturday.

Results should be out before 31 July! Watching keenly.


Two Rivers mall they usually mention their share of profit or loss in the annual report since its an associate.
In last year's annual report the loss was around ksh.2bn

Results should be out before July,kwani they have asked for an extension coz it's supposed to be 30 June.
30th June? Really? How did you figure that?

The loss last year was a FV Loss. Which is why the Balance Sheet and CF Statement are important for a better understanding.


30th June is three months after close of financial year.
Centum financial year ends on March 31


Non financial institutions are given a 4 months window, last i checked.
Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Exactly. The certainty of the statement "Results should be out before July,kwani they have asked for an extension coz it's supposed to be 30 June." was interesting.

I didn't get an answer from @ericsson but I was waiting to quote from the CMA guidelines Laughing out loudly
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#14 Posted : Saturday, July 03, 2021 2:59:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 7,988
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Life is short. Live passionately.
Ericsson
#15 Posted : Saturday, July 03, 2021 8:19:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,790
Location: NAIROBI
sparkly wrote:



This is appetizer
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
VituVingiSana
#16 Posted : Sunday, July 04, 2021 12:12:34 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,526
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:

CRE's FY21 PAT was much lower than FY20 and this will bleed into the PAT for Centum IL (parent).

I still expect a dividend but the EPS will likely be lower. The nice bit is that CRE repaid almost 3bn of shareholder loans.

Sales & cash collections are going well.
50% of Riverbank sold. Handover starts in 2H22
Sales of Cascadia going rather well but "results" in FY23
Even The Loft sales are Applause
Mzizi breaks ground end of July. 30%+ sold for Phase 1. Delivery in 30-36 months.

Vipingo (74 Awali and 330 Palm) sales are good and will show up in 1H22 since they are being handed over. Phase 2 Palm (110 units) has started.

Kingswood plots are available. Also Ocean City.

UG seems to be doing well under the circumstances.

It's a marathon not a sprint as some of these sales/handover will take place over the next 36 months.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kichwa_kibov
#17 Posted : Wednesday, July 21, 2021 5:52:51 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/24/2012
Posts: 15
Location: Tatu city
The smart man learns the truth and screams it at others to try to change their mind to his own lifestyle’s detriment. The wise man learns the truth and applies it to his life. Others learn the truth from watching him.
cnn
#18 Posted : Tuesday, July 27, 2021 11:44:41 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,573
kichwa_kibov wrote:

A ksh 0.93 loss per share and ksh 0.33 dividend per share.
McGill
#19 Posted : Tuesday, July 27, 2021 12:18:12 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/1/2019
Posts: 49
cnn wrote:
kichwa_kibov wrote:

A ksh 0.93 loss per share and ksh 0.33 dividend per share.


I thought the dividend would be better.
VituVingiSana
#20 Posted : Tuesday, July 27, 2021 10:45:19 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,526
Location: Nairobi
A pity about the dividend when CICP has 7.5bn in cash equivalents.
The loss was expected due to COVID19.

FV Losses also expected with a tough real estate market.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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