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Speculating in cryptocurrencies: A rough approach
S.Mutaga III
#1 Posted : Monday, April 09, 2018 8:51:26 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 745
I have been studying the cryptocurrency market for a few months. During this time, I have witnessed over half a trillion dollars worth of capital erosion. It has been a bad bloodbath for speculators during the period. However, I have reason to believe that there are still scarce opportunities to make money in that market. I am a fundamentalist, but fundamental analysis is technically impossible in the cryptocurrency market because most of them are just projects on paper. Bearing in mind that I am not well versed with technical analysis either, I have decided to risk a paltry Ksh 300,000 ($3000) to speculate in the turbulent market.
Venture: To Speculate in Digital Assets
Capital: $3,000 that I can afford to lose
Strategy: Trend following.
Goal: To make a modest return in a bear market.
Explaining the strategy
Buying:-I will actively search for coins and tokens that demonstrate an upward trend in both price and volume over thirty days.
Selling:- I will sell any coin that does the reverse but instead of waiting for thirty days, I will use fifteen days to stem any losses incurred.
Number of coins/tokens:- For diversification purposes, I will only speculate in 3 or 4 coins/tokens at any given time. The capital will be shared proportionally between the coins/tokens. Portfolio rebalancing will be carried out every time I cash out of a coin.
Speculative Activity 1
a) Binance Coin (BNB)
Current price: $11.88 USD
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 55% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: Volume has been increasing steadily in the last 30 days. Often trades more than 5% of its total market capitalization every 24 hrs. There is an upcoming coin burn in April which might prop the price upwards.
b) Verge (XVG)
Current price: $0.070173
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 97% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: The coin has been experiencing volumes of above 10% of its total market capitalization in 24 hrs and the volume is on an upward trajectory too.
c) IOSToken (IOST)
Current price: $0.0303
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 72% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: Volume has been increasing steadily too. Over 30% of total market capitalization has been traded in 24 hr periods in the last few days.

NB: My investment horizon is undefined. This is not investment advice and is for experimental purposes only. I risked $3000 because I am also prepared to lose it all in the murky waters of cryptocurrency speculation.Fortune favors the bold. Also, as a disclaimer, I have zero knowledge in trading/speculating in digital assets.

#Happy Hunting#

A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
Stiffler
#2 Posted : Monday, April 09, 2018 9:13:18 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/7/2017
Posts: 181
Location: Nairobi
S.Mutaga III wrote:
I have been studying the cryptocurrency market for a few months. During this time, I have witnessed over half a trillion dollars worth of capital erosion. It has been a bad bloodbath for speculators during the period. However, I have reason to believe that there are still scarce opportunities to make money in that market. I am a fundamentalist, but fundamental analysis is technically impossible in the cryptocurrency market because most of them are just projects on paper. Bearing in mind that I am not well versed with technical analysis either, I have decided to risk a paltry Ksh 300,000 ($3000) to speculate in the turbulent market.
Venture: To Speculate in Digital Assets
Capital: $3,000 that I can afford to lose
Strategy: Trend following.
Goal: To make a modest return in a bear market.
Explaining the strategy
Buying:-I will actively search for coins and tokens that demonstrate an upward trend in both price and volume over thirty days.
Selling:- I will sell any coin that does the reverse but instead of waiting for thirty days, I will use fifteen days to stem any losses incurred.
Number of coins/tokens:- For diversification purposes, I will only speculate in 3 or 4 coins/tokens at any given time. The capital will be shared proportionally between the coins/tokens. Portfolio rebalancing will be carried out every time I cash out of a coin.
Speculative Activity 1
a) Binance Coin (BNB)
Current price: $11.88 USD
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 55% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: Volume has been increasing steadily in the last 30 days. Often trades more than 5% of its total market capitalization every 24 hrs. There is an upcoming coin burn in April which might prop the price upwards.
b) Verge (XVG)
Current price: $0.070173
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 97% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: The coin has been experiencing volumes of above 10% of its total market capitalization in 24 hrs and the volume is on an upward trajectory too.
c) IOSToken (IOST)
Current price: $0.0303
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 72% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: Volume has been increasing steadily too. Over 30% of total market capitalization has been traded in 24 hr periods in the last few days.

NB: My investment horizon is undefined. This is not investment advice and is for experimental purposes only. I risked $3000 because I am also prepared to lose it all in the murky waters of cryptocurrency speculation.Fortune favors the bold. Also, as a disclaimer, I have zero knowledge in trading/speculating in digital assets.

#Happy Hunting#



A very bold gamble..
Chance favors the bold...
obiero
#3 Posted : Monday, April 09, 2018 9:33:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,658
Location: nairobi
Hapa bwana S Mutaga III utachomeka. You are an established investor and I am worried about the direction you have taken at this point. Thank me later
COOP 5,500; KCB 2,500; KQ 95,000
S.Mutaga III
#4 Posted : Monday, April 09, 2018 9:44:58 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 745
obiero wrote:
Hapa bwana S Mutaga III utachomeka. You are an established investor and I am worried about the direction you have taken at this point. Thank me later

That is why I invested just $3000. An amount that I am willing to lose. I fully understand that the gamble can go to zero very quickly. But so is the upside.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
obiero
#5 Posted : Monday, April 09, 2018 10:20:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,658
Location: nairobi
S.Mutaga III wrote:
obiero wrote:
Hapa bwana S Mutaga III utachomeka. You are an established investor and I am worried about the direction you have taken at this point. Thank me later

That is why I invested just $3000. An amount that I am willing to lose. I fully understand that the gamble can go to zero very quickly. But so is the upside.

All the best. I know you know your stuff
COOP 5,500; KCB 2,500; KQ 95,000
chiaroscuro
#6 Posted : Tuesday, April 10, 2018 8:45:21 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/2/2012
Posts: 1,015
Location: Nairobi
Out of curiosity: what is the price of Bitcoin now?
chiaroscuro
#7 Posted : Tuesday, April 10, 2018 8:52:35 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/2/2012
Posts: 1,015
Location: Nairobi
Read this before making your move: https://www.nation.co.ke...262368-m42ing/index.html
Mukiri
#8 Posted : Tuesday, April 10, 2018 10:40:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,198
S.Mutaga III wrote:
I have been studying the cryptocurrency market for a few months. During this time, I have witnessed over half a trillion dollars worth of capital erosion. It has been a bad bloodbath for speculators during the period. However, I have reason to believe that there are still scarce opportunities to make money in that market. I am a fundamentalist, but fundamental analysis is technically impossible in the cryptocurrency market because most of them are just projects on paper. Bearing in mind that I am not well versed with technical analysis either, I have decided to risk a paltry Ksh 300,000 ($3000) to speculate in the turbulent market.
Venture: To Speculate in Digital Assets
Capital: $3,000 that I can afford to lose
Strategy: Trend following.
Goal: To make a modest return in a bear market.
Explaining the strategy
Buying:-I will actively search for coins and tokens that demonstrate an upward trend in both price and volume over thirty days.
Selling:- I will sell any coin that does the reverse but instead of waiting for thirty days, I will use fifteen days to stem any losses incurred.
Number of coins/tokens:- For diversification purposes, I will only speculate in 3 or 4 coins/tokens at any given time. The capital will be shared proportionally between the coins/tokens. Portfolio rebalancing will be carried out every time I cash out of a coin.
Speculative Activity 1
a) Binance Coin (BNB)
Current price: $11.88 USD
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 55% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: Volume has been increasing steadily in the last 30 days. Often trades more than 5% of its total market capitalization every 24 hrs. There is an upcoming coin burn in April which might prop the price upwards.
b) Verge (XVG)
Current price: $0.070173
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 97% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: The coin has been experiencing volumes of above 10% of its total market capitalization in 24 hrs and the volume is on an upward trajectory too.
c) IOSToken (IOST)
Current price: $0.0303
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 72% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: Volume has been increasing steadily too. Over 30% of total market capitalization has been traded in 24 hr periods in the last few days.

NB: My investment horizon is undefined. This is not investment advice and is for experimental purposes only. I risked $3000 because I am also prepared to lose it all in the murky waters of cryptocurrency speculation.Fortune favors the bold. Also, as a disclaimer, I have zero knowledge in trading/speculating in digital assets.

#Happy Hunting#


Werokamu... Are you open to advice, or just letting Wazua know of your action? I might have a thing or two to say about your action, but unsolicited opinion is not my forte

Proverbs 19:21
Mukiri
#9 Posted : Tuesday, April 10, 2018 10:43:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,198
chiaroscuro wrote:
Out of curiosity: what is the price of Bitcoin now?

coinmarketcapital.com will tell you, at a glance, most of what you need to know

Proverbs 19:21
S.Mutaga III
#10 Posted : Tuesday, April 10, 2018 11:20:23 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 745
Mukiri wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
I have been studying the cryptocurrency market for a few months. During this time, I have witnessed over half a trillion dollars worth of capital erosion. It has been a bad bloodbath for speculators during the period. However, I have reason to believe that there are still scarce opportunities to make money in that market. I am a fundamentalist, but fundamental analysis is technically impossible in the cryptocurrency market because most of them are just projects on paper. Bearing in mind that I am not well versed with technical analysis either, I have decided to risk a paltry Ksh 300,000 ($3000) to speculate in the turbulent market.
Venture: To Speculate in Digital Assets
Capital: $3,000 that I can afford to lose
Strategy: Trend following.
Goal: To make a modest return in a bear market.
Explaining the strategy
Buying:-I will actively search for coins and tokens that demonstrate an upward trend in both price and volume over thirty days.
Selling:- I will sell any coin that does the reverse but instead of waiting for thirty days, I will use fifteen days to stem any losses incurred.
Number of coins/tokens:- For diversification purposes, I will only speculate in 3 or 4 coins/tokens at any given time. The capital will be shared proportionally between the coins/tokens. Portfolio rebalancing will be carried out every time I cash out of a coin.
Speculative Activity 1
a) Binance Coin (BNB)
Current price: $11.88 USD
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 55% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: Volume has been increasing steadily in the last 30 days. Often trades more than 5% of its total market capitalization every 24 hrs. There is an upcoming coin burn in April which might prop the price upwards.
b) Verge (XVG)
Current price: $0.070173
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 97% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: The coin has been experiencing volumes of above 10% of its total market capitalization in 24 hrs and the volume is on an upward trajectory too.
c) IOSToken (IOST)
Current price: $0.0303
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 72% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: Volume has been increasing steadily too. Over 30% of total market capitalization has been traded in 24 hr periods in the last few days.

NB: My investment horizon is undefined. This is not investment advice and is for experimental purposes only. I risked $3000 because I am also prepared to lose it all in the murky waters of cryptocurrency speculation.Fortune favors the bold. Also, as a disclaimer, I have zero knowledge in trading/speculating in digital assets.

#Happy Hunting#


Werokamu... Are you open to advice, or just letting Wazua know of your action? I might have a thing or two to say about your action, but unsolicited opinion is not my forte

I welcome any advice. I could use it in future so go for it. I am all ears.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
Mukiri
#11 Posted : Tuesday, April 10, 2018 12:32:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,198
S.Mutaga III wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
S.Mutaga III wrote:
I have been studying the cryptocurrency market for a few months. During this time, I have witnessed over half a trillion dollars worth of capital erosion. It has been a bad bloodbath for speculators during the period. However, I have reason to believe that there are still scarce opportunities to make money in that market. I am a fundamentalist, but fundamental analysis is technically impossible in the cryptocurrency market because most of them are just projects on paper. Bearing in mind that I am not well versed with technical analysis either, I have decided to risk a paltry Ksh 300,000 ($3000) to speculate in the turbulent market.
Venture: To Speculate in Digital Assets
Capital: $3,000 that I can afford to lose
Strategy: Trend following.
Goal: To make a modest return in a bear market.
Explaining the strategy
Buying:-I will actively search for coins and tokens that demonstrate an upward trend in both price and volume over thirty days.
Selling:- I will sell any coin that does the reverse but instead of waiting for thirty days, I will use fifteen days to stem any losses incurred.
Number of coins/tokens:- For diversification purposes, I will only speculate in 3 or 4 coins/tokens at any given time. The capital will be shared proportionally between the coins/tokens. Portfolio rebalancing will be carried out every time I cash out of a coin.
Speculative Activity 1
a) Binance Coin (BNB)
Current price: $11.88 USD
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 55% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: Volume has been increasing steadily in the last 30 days. Often trades more than 5% of its total market capitalization every 24 hrs. There is an upcoming coin burn in April which might prop the price upwards.
b) Verge (XVG)
Current price: $0.070173
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 97% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: The coin has been experiencing volumes of above 10% of its total market capitalization in 24 hrs and the volume is on an upward trajectory too.
c) IOSToken (IOST)
Current price: $0.0303
Amount invested: $1000
Price trend: Gained 72% in the last 30 days
Volume trend: Volume has been increasing steadily too. Over 30% of total market capitalization has been traded in 24 hr periods in the last few days.

NB: My investment horizon is undefined. This is not investment advice and is for experimental purposes only. I risked $3000 because I am also prepared to lose it all in the murky waters of cryptocurrency speculation.Fortune favors the bold. Also, as a disclaimer, I have zero knowledge in trading/speculating in digital assets.

#Happy Hunting#


Werokamu... Are you open to advice, or just letting Wazua know of your action? I might have a thing or two to say about your action, but unsolicited opinion is not my forte

I welcome any advice. I could use it in future so go for it. I am all ears.

Sawa Chief. Please take whatever I have to say with a (BIG) pinch of salt. I only share, in the hope of learning from (your) feedback. In my little experience, I've come to realize there are no gurus in crypto. The same is epitomized in real-life, where a child will get right some IQ questions, that adults fail... most like due to preconceptions and/or assumptions.

Let me first start with your narrative..
Bad bloodbath, yes. For speculators, no! Investors, YES! The notion of hodling (to me) is something worth mulling over. I personally find it foolish. The way things change in crypto, it would be wise to be dynamic

Scarce opportunities? Hardly. Opportunities abound, if you learn how to 'see' them

Fundamentals are important. Very. But not the most important. In my opinion, crypto is being driven by mass euphoria, on the surface. It's still a bubble with the people majority behaving like a herd. There are those that have thought well ahead of time, mostly 'whales' not only currently win, but will be future winners! Here you might want to evaluate your goals.. Short or Longterm? Personally, I want my money in my pocket.

Trend following. Probably your best possible strategy, if you are trading. BUT you might have to work to be among the first in, anything else might lead to either paltry returns or losses!

Modest returns, wisesmile Equate what only 5% a week will give you in a year.

30 / 15 days? That is a loooooonnnngggg time in crypto. Things change in minutes! You need to keep abreast with news. It has been argued that crypto becomes a way of life for anybody in it. One can't afford to make a trade and check 15 days later! Stop loss is the safety belt, you can NEVER do without!

Moving on to your coins of choice
I'll start by (my) cardinal rule. Bitcoin is king! It goes up, Alts go down! It goes down, Alts go down!!! An Alt will only rise when Bitcoin is stable, or there is some fundamental news that will defy the general public's perception of it inspite of what is happening with Bitcoin.

That said, do you know WHY BNB, XVG or IOST have been gaining? Do you know how long that trend is likely to last? Seek to answer those questions...
Else you'll be lest holding a bag like those who bought BTC @20k.. Sometimes, the gain in a coin is the sure indicator to keep very very far from it. Remember what I said, to either try be the first in; or evaluate what is driving a trend and how long it is likely to last, before risking your money.

Finally, be safe. Remember, your money in your pocket? Invest in security. An exchange can go down or become unusable when you need it the most. Better spend money in transfer fees than risk losing your capital

Proverbs 19:21
snifadog
#12 Posted : Tuesday, April 10, 2018 1:39:19 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 6/6/2016
Posts: 87
Location: Nairobi
it's an interesting move you are taking, I salute you for overcoming all the negative perceptions most traditional investors have against cryptocurrencies. However, I would encourage you follow 3-5 solid projects closely and learn about their developments and timelines then use that and some TA to trade them. You should be able to get even 30% gains per month. I have done it many times.
BNB - there is a coin burn approaching any day now and the price will surely pull back, don't be left holding. This one I follow it but I missed out the x4 runup because I was stuck in another position. good luck
sparkly
#13 Posted : Tuesday, April 10, 2018 1:59:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 6,428
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@SMutagaIII i like it that you can take risks. I have a proposal, seeing that you are ready to gain and lose on cryptos. I have traded shares on fundamental and technical basis and my results are well documented on Wazua. If you avail another USD 3000 to me, I will trade it for you for a 25% share in the profits.

Waiting for your response.
Life is short. Live passionately.
obiero
#14 Posted : Wednesday, April 11, 2018 8:51:46 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 10,658
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
@SMutagaIII i like it that you can take risks. I have a proposal, seeing that you are ready to gain and lose on cryptos. I have traded shares on fundamental and technical basis and my results are well documented on Wazua. If you avail another USD 3000 to me, I will trade it for you for a 25% share in the profits.

Waiting for your response.

Let me leave this here http://www.mediamaxnetwo...autions-lenders-bitcoin/
COOP 5,500; KCB 2,500; KQ 95,000
Mukiri
#15 Posted : Wednesday, April 11, 2018 9:29:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,198
Another word of advice, learnt from Wazua .. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered! Take profits!

When target is realized, don't be too greedy trying to compound returns. 50% isn't too bad. In circa 6 months you probably will have your 300k+, as 50% profits.. take it. I use mine to buy back BTC at least expected price. This I learnt from a trader I revere, who at the height of 20k sold everything, bought among other things an AMD (which he videos from) and set a buy order for BTC 2k. Let your other 50% make more money.. That way, if it all goes bottom-up, you've really lost nothing.

Let me help @Obiero by leaving this here https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@supercrypto1/4th-dimension-bitcoin-manipulation-cartel-price-suppression-is-the-goal

Proverbs 19:21
Cornelius Vanderbilt
#16 Posted : Wednesday, April 11, 2018 11:21:04 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/15/2015
Posts: 817
why are people so indifferent about bitcion.there's no difference in the way you invest in stocks with the way you invest in bitcion.when i pull out a bitcoin chart and compare it with a nse chart the same technical analysis methods are applicable on both charts.BTC is here to stay.the more people realize it the better.
S.Mutaga III
#17 Posted : Wednesday, April 11, 2018 12:57:24 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 745
sparkly wrote:
@SMutagaIII i like it that you can take risks. I have a proposal, seeing that you are ready to gain and lose on cryptos. I have traded shares on fundamental and technical basis and my results are well documented on Wazua. If you avail another USD 3000 to me, I will trade it for you for a 25% share in the profits.

Waiting for your response.

I have invested in shares for a long time and my experiences are also well documented here in wazua. Therefore, I don't really need help on that front. I am a DIY kind of person.
Link: http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...spx?g=posts&t=35514
Link: http://m.wazua.co.ke/for...spx?g=posts&t=27314
Link 2015: http://wazua.co.ke/forum...sts&t=31918&p=3
For 2015, I made a slight loss (less than 10%) but still outperformed the index by a country mile.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
S.Mutaga III
#18 Posted : Wednesday, April 11, 2018 1:00:29 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 745
The $3,000 is less than 10% of my portfolio. Therefore, I am ready to experiment with it in very high risk ventures like cryptocurrencies. I am not seasoned in speculation but you know what they say, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
sparkly
#19 Posted : Wednesday, April 11, 2018 1:00:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 6,428
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
S.Mutaga III wrote:
sparkly wrote:
@SMutagaIII i like it that you can take risks. I have a proposal, seeing that you are ready to gain and lose on cryptos. I have traded shares on fundamental and technical basis and my results are well documented on Wazua. If you avail another USD 3000 to me, I will trade it for you for a 25% share in the profits.

Waiting for your response.

I have invested in shares for a long time and my experiences are also well documented here in wazua. Therefore, I don't really need help on that front. I am a DIY kind of person.


Not so much as help but help you diversify your methods. You have the money to put in Cryptos and I am looking for an opportunity.
Life is short. Live passionately.
sparkly
#20 Posted : Wednesday, April 11, 2018 1:07:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 6,428
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
S.Mutaga III wrote:
The $3,000 is less than 10% of my portfolio. Therefore, I am ready to experiment with it in very high risk ventures like cryptocurrencies. I am not seasoned in speculation but you know what they say, nothing ventured, nothing gained.


I am also willing to experiment in cryptos but not with my own money. Since you have the money and the risk appetite I am willing to contribute my labour for a piece of profit. In other words, you employ me to trade cryptos.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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