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28 Pages<12345>»
KenolKobil 2018 and beyond
Ebenyo
#41 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 8:43:18 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,695
Location: Kitale
Kausha wrote:
http://www.kenolkobil.com/uploads/1/3/3/9/13398397/kenolkobil_audited_group_results_2017.pdf



hii ni results ya kuletwa na mlango wa nyuma.
We want nice presentations bana.
Call a press conference and announce the results.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
watesh
#42 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 9:29:47 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 721
Location: Kenya
What happened to the gross profit? Were their margins that low in the 2nd half?
I expected a bigger dividend....
Cashflows:
A significant decrease in cash generated from operations but I am still happy they have a significant amount of cash in the bank.
Otherwise, not as exciting as H1 but I will blame it on elections
mlennyma
#43 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 9:31:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 5,950
Location: nairobi
watesh wrote:
What happened to the gross profit? Were their margins that low in the 2nd half?
I expected a bigger dividend....
Cashflows:
A significant decrease in cash generated from operations but I am still happy they have a significant amount of cash in the bank.
Otherwise, not as exciting as H1 but I will blame it on elections

I must agree second half was awful
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Ericsson
#44 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 9:38:42 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,066
Location: NAIROBI
mlennyma wrote:
watesh wrote:
What happened to the gross profit? Were their margins that low in the 2nd half?
I expected a bigger dividend....
Cashflows:
A significant decrease in cash generated from operations but I am still happy they have a significant amount of cash in the bank.
Otherwise, not as exciting as H1 but I will blame it on elections

I must agree second half was awful


That will not excite investors
mlennyma
#45 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 10:00:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 5,950
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
watesh wrote:
What happened to the gross profit? Were their margins that low in the 2nd half?
I expected a bigger dividend....
Cashflows:
A significant decrease in cash generated from operations but I am still happy they have a significant amount of cash in the bank.
Otherwise, not as exciting as H1 but I will blame it on elections

I must agree second half was awful


That will not excite investors

from 20% to a flat tyre
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
heri
#46 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 10:36:52 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 674
Location: nairobi
what is the total impact of the extra ordinary items such as former CEO payment and other legal costs settlement etc .
mulla
#47 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 10:48:47 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/15/2013
Posts: 275
Ericsson wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
watesh wrote:
What happened to the gross profit? Were their margins that low in the 2nd half?
I expected a bigger dividend....
Cashflows:
A significant decrease in cash generated from operations but I am still happy they have a significant amount of cash in the bank.
Otherwise, not as exciting as H1 but I will blame it on elections

I must agree second half was awful


That will not excite investors

For a long term investor the 42% volume growth plus the one off expenses that hit profits may suggest a good entry point at lower prices....
Ericsson
#48 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 11:26:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,066
Location: NAIROBI
One-off expense not fully convincing
muganda
#49 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 11:44:48 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,860
Ericsson wrote:
One-off expense not fully convincing


Agreed.

An uninformed investor might even have expected better results for an oil company amidst rising crude prices, led on by the eye-popping growth in volume - alas!
Ericsson
#50 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 6:18:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,066
Location: NAIROBI
@vvs hasn't spoken since the results were released
winmak
#51 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 7:10:25 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/1/2007
Posts: 419
Location: Nakuru
Ericsson wrote:
@vvs hasn't spoken since the results were released


Eagerly waiting to hear from him... his major counters are having issues
For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
obiero
#52 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 7:25:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,040
Location: nairobi
winmak wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
@vvs hasn't spoken since the results were released


Eagerly waiting to hear from him... his major counters are having issues

What are your major counters so that we also check your performance? Meanwhile let’s give @vvs time to digest KK FY
COOP 5,500; KCB 3,700; KNRE 100,000; KQ 221,100
VituVingiSana
#53 Posted : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 11:47:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,185
Location: Nairobi
winmak wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
@vvs hasn't spoken since the results were released


Eagerly waiting to hear from him... his major counters are having issues

Don't cry for me. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Unga - Pending takeover bid. We await the Offer Document. I expect (hope?) for a higher offer from Seaboard once the Independent Adviser provides its input.

KK - Hah! At a EPS of 2.30 (before extraordinary costs) it's doing very well Applause Applause Applause An unchallenging PER of 7.

KenRe - Sigh, I expect a very good set of results for FY 2017 [vs 2016] but I admit firing Mwarania by the Godfather #1's lackeys is worrying. d'oh! d'oh! d'oh!

I&M - FY 2017 (vs 2016) will take a hit like most banks. I want them to clean up their books so they go into FY 2018 with guns blazing. Pray Pray Pray

Equity - No complaints. I expect solid results and a strong balance sheet with a lot of (safe) GoK securities. FY 2018 should be very good. smile smile smile

I am a long-term investor so I do not stress about hiccups [KenRe is not a hiccup in my view unless there's a change in the board]...

Unga screwed up on Ennsvalley and Nakumatt in 2015-17.
KK under Ohana has done very well but it came close to "dying" under Segman.
Equity had SS. And DRC is dicey but Kenya is doing a-OK. Double digit growth will be tougher for all banks BUT repeal of interest rate caps should see huge gains.
I&M screwed up buying Giro at a huge premium and took a hit when peers like Imperial and Chase collapsed but now FY 2018 beckons.

I am glad Ohana has cleaned up the books. The KPRL amount has been provided for BUT there remains a chance of recovery. Total has taken KPRL to court and with the assets KPRL has, there's a good chance of recovery except for "time" [when will it happen?]

KK also has the arbitration award against KPC that's winding its way slowly through court. It's not included in the assets but if a payment/settlement is made then that's extra cash.

Inventories+Receivables+Cash-Borrowings-Payables = 6bn [great situation to be in]

No KES loans. Cheap(er) USD loans used to finance inventory.

Finally, there's the potential "takeover" now that biwott has croaked and the family may want to cash in.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#54 Posted : Thursday, March 15, 2018 12:13:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,066
Location: NAIROBI
@vvs
Stick to the topic of kk.
Ohana said they don't borrow locally whether its ksh or USD.
Rates are high.
Dividend payout is 36% of after tax profits
VituVingiSana
#55 Posted : Thursday, March 15, 2018 5:43:18 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,185
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
@vvs
Stick to the topic of kk. Don't get stressed out unnecessarily.
Ohana said they don't borrow locally whether its ksh or USD.
Rates are high. KK has borrowings (probably in USD) of KES 7.3bn as of 31st Dec 2017. Ohana said he prefers Dutch banks.

Dividend payout is 36% of after tax profits
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#56 Posted : Thursday, March 15, 2018 7:44:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,066
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
@vvs
Stick to the topic of kk. Don't get stressed out unnecessarily.
Ohana said they don't borrow locally whether its ksh or USD.
Rates are high. KK has borrowings (probably in USD) of KES 7.3bn as of 31st Dec 2017. Ohana said he prefers Dutch banks.

Dividend payout is 36% of after tax profits

It's not getting stressed unnecessarily.The trend is becoming rampant.
VituVingiSana
#57 Posted : Thursday, March 15, 2018 2:39:55 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,185
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
@vvs
Stick to the topic of kk. Don't get stressed out unnecessarily.
Ohana said they don't borrow locally whether its ksh or USD.
Rates are high. KK has borrowings (probably in USD) of KES 7.3bn as of 31st Dec 2017. Ohana said he prefers Dutch banks.

Dividend payout is 36% of after tax profits

It's not getting stressed unnecessarily.The trend is becoming rampant.
Deep breath. In. Out. It's all good.
And KK is doing OK. Enjoy the ride.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mlennyma
#58 Posted : Thursday, March 15, 2018 3:00:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 5,950
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
@vvs
Stick to the topic of kk. Don't get stressed out unnecessarily.
Ohana said they don't borrow locally whether its ksh or USD.
Rates are high. KK has borrowings (probably in USD) of KES 7.3bn as of 31st Dec 2017. Ohana said he prefers Dutch banks.

Dividend payout is 36% of after tax profits

It's not getting stressed unnecessarily.The trend is becoming rampant.
Deep breath. In. Out. It's all good.
And KK is doing OK. Enjoy the ride.

New high of 17.25 today but i feel it will tank a bit going forward
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#59 Posted : Thursday, March 15, 2018 3:14:40 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,185
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
@vvs
Stick to the topic of kk. Don't get stressed out unnecessarily.
Ohana said they don't borrow locally whether its ksh or USD.
Rates are high. KK has borrowings (probably in USD) of KES 7.3bn as of 31st Dec 2017. Ohana said he prefers Dutch banks.

Dividend payout is 36% of after tax profits

It's not getting stressed unnecessarily.The trend is becoming rampant.
Deep breath. In. Out. It's all good.
And KK is doing OK. Enjoy the ride.

New high of 17.25 today but i feel it will tank a bit going forward

At the FY 2017 EPS of 2.30 (excluding the listed one-offs) and a reasonable PER of 8 = KES 18.50
FY 2018 (ceteris paribus) should be better though I do fret about the VAT in Sep. I think Kestrel had a report that estimated KES 2.90 for FY 2018.

Caution: Burundi is weak [no forex], Ethiopia remains barely profitable, VAT in Kenya, volatile/high oil prices, debt crunch in Kenya, high taxes increases the likelihood of smuggling, etc

Pluses: If KK can gain market share then the shrinking industry volumes might not hurt as much ; No market/country is making a loss ; Ohana is ruthless about reducing non-performing stations [fewer stations in Ethiopia] ; Credit provision is very limited so bad debts are minimized ; OTS (low margin but high volume) is back
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#60 Posted : Thursday, March 15, 2018 4:25:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,185
Location: Nairobi
Segman's payout
https://www.businessdail...2526-prdloqz/index.html

https://citizentv.co.ke/...-sh2-4bn-profit-193713/

"During the year ended December, KenolKobil net profit stood at Sh2.4 billion after completing a one off cost of Sh1.3 billion shillings which ate into its earnings."

"KenolKobil group managing director David Ohana said with the debt now settled, the oil marketer is poised for further growth."

"“We expect no further provisions or expenses related to these matters,” Mr Ohana said."

“You guys are usually excited by the profit and loss but I am more excited about our balance sheet which has really gotten slim,” he stressed.

“We are also convinced, when you look at the environment, I think electioneering, and stuff like that, probably behind us now, so we are very positive about 2018,” Mr Mathenge said.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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