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186 Pages«<184185186
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
mnandii
#3701 Posted : Saturday, February 06, 2021 1:06:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


FTSE KENYA 15
Likely bottomed at 152.07. See how the ABC pattern respected the downward trend channel below.

FTSE KENYA 15 now appears to be rising impulsively. I expect a rise above 190.00s then further rise above 227.00s.

If in deed FTSE KENYA 15 rises above 227.00s then 152.07 will be a long term bottom lasting years.



Notice here that FTSE KENYA 15 bottomed just slightly below Fibonacci 0.786 of the prior rise from 140.21 to 247.94

MORE on Fibonacci and Golden Ratio:


Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Ericsson
#3702 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2021 9:52:57 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,462
Location: NAIROBI
mnandii wrote:


Safaricom.
Upper channel has been pierced in a 'throw - over'. Notice the upper wick of the last bullish candle and the fact the Safaricom did not close above the upper channel line. Circle wave y is also Fibonacci 100% equal to wave w. Gentlemen and ladies I expect Safaricom to now turn aggressively downward. A move to below 30.00 in the coming days will be confirmation that the reversal is at hand.

Targets for wave C of (2) are 16.50, 12.00 and 4.40.


The share price is defying the wave theory
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
mnandii
#3703 Posted : Sunday, February 14, 2021 6:22:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


CRUDE OIL XTIUSD is completing wave 5 of (5) of [5] of c. A move below $57.30 will confirm the maturity of the uptrend a b c pattern as posted last week. That will be the start of a long term (a year at most) trend to below $33.00 and further south of $3.00. Enjoy the show.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mkonomtupu
#3704 Posted : Sunday, February 14, 2021 8:06:16 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Hello people
VituVingiSana
#3705 Posted : Sunday, February 14, 2021 9:57:41 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,835
Location: Nairobi
@mnandii - What was your timeline for 16.50 for Saf?
Or did you mean if it does a 3:1 split?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ericsson
#3706 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2021 8:04:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,462
Location: NAIROBI
VituVingiSana wrote:
@mnandii - What was your timeline for 16.50 for Saf?
Or did you mean if it does a 3:1 split?

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Share split
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Angelica _ann
#3707 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2021 10:55:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,876
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@mnandii - What was your timeline for 16.50 for Saf?
Or did you mean if it does a 3:1 split?

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Share split


The waves can always be adjusted smile smile smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
mufasa
#3708 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2021 9:45:24 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 185
Clearly Mr. Elliot had not foreseen a situation where there was a pandemic
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
wukan
#3709 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2022 6:04:51 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,525
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:


NSE 20 Share Index. we have had a bottom target of between 1700-1400. The sharp nature of fall below 1800 suggests that our bottom target of 1400 is a good candidate the NSE 20s multiyear/decade support. Elliott counts will guide us to call out the exact bottom.

Similar to the way we called a TOP in NSE 20 at a time it was above 6000 in 2014.


When the bottom finally comes expect predictions market collapse below 1000 points. Expect lawlessness, possible internal or external war(much worse than 2007-08). Expect diseases, famine, unemployment, crime.

A flattish Q2 for NSE20 while other markets rallied hard - some even made all time highs - retains its weak posture in Q3. Possible global correction won't be kind to the NSE. When is the release of Q2 banking results?


NSE 20 closed 1711.83
NASI closed at 137.26

The expressway to 1400 opened to the public

SafaricomPray Pray
cnn
#3710 Posted : Monday, May 23, 2022 3:43:57 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,592
Ericsson wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@mnandii - What was your timeline for 16.50 for Saf?
Or did you mean if it does a 3:1 split?

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Share split

Average close price@26.65
mnandii
#3711 Posted : Sunday, August 28, 2022 3:10:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
mnandii wrote:
ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS OF THE NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

This is my interpretation of the path of the NSE 20 Share index from the low of Sept. 2002. I've obtained the chart from the FINANCIAL TIMES Website
link

Elliott wave analysis is mine.
Looking at the chart, one can convincingly conclude that it is possible to chart the path of the NSE using Elliott Waves. For those interested in learning the waves you can read ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLE: KEY TO MARKET BEHAVIOUR BY Frost and Prechter. You can get the entire book free and alot more from www.elliottwave.com.

It is instructive to note that Prechter and Frost, in the book, predicted the great bull market from 1979 (i.e the DJIA). To date the American market has far exceeded even their own expectations. Prechter won the U.S Trading Championship in 1984 with a record 444% gain.

Prechter

Prechter is currently researching on social causality via the Socionomics Institute.

Now to our analysis:



This chart shows a 5 wave move from the low of Sept. 2002 (1009 points) to the high of Jan 2007 (6026 points). Note the zigzag in wave IV and the triangle in wave four of wave V.

This five wave move is called an Impulse Wave. I don't have data from before 1998 so I guess this is a fifth wave move of a much larger impulse wave.

A fourth wave usually divides an impulse into a Golden Section. From the low of Sept. 2002 to the high of wave III (at 3176) is a gain of 2167 (i.e. 3176-1009). Wave V has a gain of 3558 points (i.e 6026-2468).

Now, wave I through wave III, (i.e 3176-1009=2167) multiplied by 1.618 ( a Fibonacci ratio) gives 3506 points vide:

(3176-1009) X 1.618 = 3506 points.

Wave V had a gain of 3558 points i.e 6026-2468.
The difference btw the two figures (3558 vs 3506) is 52 points which is one and half percentage points from the exact figure!

WHY I CONSIDER A HUGE BEAR MARKET FOR NSE

1. From the high of 6026, the NSE 20 Share index has fallen in five waves (i.e waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5). From the low of March 2009 (at 2576 points), the NSE has moved in 3 waves. Or, at the very least, the move from the part I've labelled A to the part labelled B cannot be considered an impulse wave due to overlap. The Elliott wave pattern that has such characteristics is called a ZIGZAG. A Zigzag is a three wave move that subdivides 5-3-5. So presently we have 5 waves down from the 6026 high, thus forming wave A. Wave B is the three wave move from the low of March 2009 at 2576 to present levels. What remains is another five wave down which is likely to take the 2576 low!!!

2. Also note the DIVERGENCE between the RSI and the highs that the NSE is making presently.

3. From the low of Sept. 2002 to the high of Jan 2007 NSE had a gain of 5017 (i.e 6026-1009) points over a 5 year period. From the low of March 2009 to presently, the NSE has only gained about 2497 points (i.e 5073-2576) over a 5 year period. This is about half the gain of 2002-2007. So we now have a market which shows weakness in breadth apart from not making a new high beyond 6026 points.

4. Economically Kenya has one of the highest taxation levels with little efficiency. Electricity prices are high etc etc. Our debt obligation, though not necessarily un-manageable at this point, has accelerated over the past few years. Alot of grand projects are being announced which appear to be good news. In Elliott analysis complacency usually reigns at the very top of a move.

CONCLUSION

NSE 20 Share index is over-extended and it is time for a big correction in the market.

Regards to all.



Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
Fyatu
#3712 Posted : Sunday, August 28, 2022 4:27:25 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
mnandii wrote:
mnandii wrote:
ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS OF THE NSE 20 SHARE INDEX

This is my interpretation of the path of the NSE 20 Share index from the low of Sept. 2002. I've obtained the chart from the FINANCIAL TIMES Website
link

Elliott wave analysis is mine.
Looking at the chart, one can convincingly conclude that it is possible to chart the path of the NSE using Elliott Waves. For those interested in learning the waves you can read ELLIOTT WAVE PRINCIPLE: KEY TO MARKET BEHAVIOUR BY Frost and Prechter. You can get the entire book free and alot more from www.elliottwave.com.

It is instructive to note that Prechter and Frost, in the book, predicted the great bull market from 1979 (i.e the DJIA). To date the American market has far exceeded even their own expectations. Prechter won the U.S Trading Championship in 1984 with a record 444% gain.

Prechter

Prechter is currently researching on social causality via the Socionomics Institute.

Now to our analysis:



This chart shows a 5 wave move from the low of Sept. 2002 (1009 points) to the high of Jan 2007 (6026 points). Note the zigzag in wave IV and the triangle in wave four of wave V.

This five wave move is called an Impulse Wave. I don't have data from before 1998 so I guess this is a fifth wave move of a much larger impulse wave.

A fourth wave usually divides an impulse into a Golden Section. From the low of Sept. 2002 to the high of wave III (at 3176) is a gain of 2167 (i.e. 3176-1009). Wave V has a gain of 3558 points (i.e 6026-2468).

Now, wave I through wave III, (i.e 3176-1009=2167) multiplied by 1.618 ( a Fibonacci ratio) gives 3506 points vide:

(3176-1009) X 1.618 = 3506 points.

Wave V had a gain of 3558 points i.e 6026-2468.
The difference btw the two figures (3558 vs 3506) is 52 points which is one and half percentage points from the exact figure!

WHY I CONSIDER A HUGE BEAR MARKET FOR NSE

1. From the high of 6026, the NSE 20 Share index has fallen in five waves (i.e waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5). From the low of March 2009 (at 2576 points), the NSE has moved in 3 waves. Or, at the very least, the move from the part I've labelled A to the part labelled B cannot be considered an impulse wave due to overlap. The Elliott wave pattern that has such characteristics is called a ZIGZAG. A Zigzag is a three wave move that subdivides 5-3-5. So presently we have 5 waves down from the 6026 high, thus forming wave A. Wave B is the three wave move from the low of March 2009 at 2576 to present levels. What remains is another five wave down which is likely to take the 2576 low!!!

2. Also note the DIVERGENCE between the RSI and the highs that the NSE is making presently.

3. From the low of Sept. 2002 to the high of Jan 2007 NSE had a gain of 5017 (i.e 6026-1009) points over a 5 year period. From the low of March 2009 to presently, the NSE has only gained about 2497 points (i.e 5073-2576) over a 5 year period. This is about half the gain of 2002-2007. So we now have a market which shows weakness in breadth apart from not making a new high beyond 6026 points.

4. Economically Kenya has one of the highest taxation levels with little efficiency. Electricity prices are high etc etc. Our debt obligation, though not necessarily un-manageable at this point, has accelerated over the past few years. Alot of grand projects are being announced which appear to be good news. In Elliott analysis complacency usually reigns at the very top of a move.

CONCLUSION

NSE 20 Share index is over-extended and it is time for a big correction in the market.

Regards to all.






Granted. Your predictions came to pass.

How is the future looking like? Have we bottomed?
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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