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Stanlib Fahari I-Reit FY 2019
Ericsson
#21 Posted : Tuesday, September 15, 2020 6:51:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,108
Location: NAIROBI
Fyatu wrote:
heri wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
At kobole, this thing is a steal. Value here will be unlocked very quickly and violently and some people will come hapa hapa wazua and start lamenting how they missed an opportunity...

For some of us whose retirement is approaching fast, dividend here is guaranteed 15% of current price


I have never looked at it but seems you are right

But what if rents fall say by 40%


Rent can never go down...that is why people invest in real estate. A 2 bedroom apartment in Kitengela fetching kshs. 20,000 rent monthly today will not be fetching the same amount in year 2030. Likewise,the land that the apartment sits on will also appreciate..The reit fully owns the property in its portfolio some of which is very very prime e.g., Greenspan


When depseration checks in rent can go down which in turn affects valuation.
Britam and Old Mutual UAP have been noting that down in their financial statements
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
tandich
#22 Posted : Tuesday, September 15, 2020 8:02:10 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 188
heri wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
At kobole, this thing is a steal. Value here will be unlocked very quickly and violently and some people will come hapa hapa wazua and start lamenting how they missed an opportunity...

For some of us whose retirement is approaching fast, dividend here is guaranteed 15% of current price


I have never looked at it but seems you are right

But what if rents fall say by 40%


Factor in vacancies and default. Surely Real Estate is not immune from the economic cycle
heri
#23 Posted : Tuesday, September 15, 2020 8:17:55 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 791
Location: nairobi
Fyatu wrote:
heri wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
At kobole, this thing is a steal. Value here will be unlocked very quickly and violently and some people will come hapa hapa wazua and start lamenting how they missed an opportunity...

For some of us whose retirement is approaching fast, dividend here is guaranteed 15% of current price


I have never looked at it but seems you are right

But what if rents fall say by 40%


Rent can never go down...that is why people invest in real estate. A 2 bedroom apartment in Kitengela fetching kshs. 20,000 rent monthly today will not be fetching the same amount in year 2030. Likewise,the land that the apartment sits on will also appreciate..The reit fully owns the property in its portfolio some of which is very very prime e.g., Greenspan


Well that has not been my experience. for example in westlands where my employer has an office, the landlord offered deep cuts in rent to stop us moving out . Had been planning to move out before covid

Happening in many other places i know

Fyatu
#24 Posted : Tuesday, September 15, 2020 9:55:38 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,781
Location: Nakuru
heri wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
heri wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
At kobole, this thing is a steal. Value here will be unlocked very quickly and violently and some people will come hapa hapa wazua and start lamenting how they missed an opportunity...

For some of us whose retirement is approaching fast, dividend here is guaranteed 15% of current price


I have never looked at it but seems you are right

But what if rents fall say by 40%


Rent can never go down...that is why people invest in real estate. A 2 bedroom apartment in Kitengela fetching kshs. 20,000 rent monthly today will not be fetching the same amount in year 2030. Likewise,the land that the apartment sits on will also appreciate..The reit fully owns the property in its portfolio some of which is very very prime e.g., Greenspan


Well that has not been my experience. for example in westlands where my employer has an office, the landlord offered deep cuts in rent to stop us moving out . Had been planning to move out before covid

Happening in many other places i know


Personally, i believe this was seasonal COVID19 notwithstanding. I stand to be corrected. Lets see how "The working from home" fad goes.
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
Fyatu
#25 Posted : Tuesday, September 15, 2020 10:04:40 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,781
Location: Nakuru
Ericsson wrote:


When depseration checks in rent can go down which in turn affects valuation.
Britam and Old Mutual UAP have been noting that down in their financial statements


Its all about demand and supply my brother. With an economy growing by >5.5% for the past 15 years, things are going to turnaround for the better.

There is a gentleman putting up a 44-floor apartment block in Upperhill. The Chinese have put up the humongous GTC place in Westlands etc. Surely, these investors are not throwing away their money (billions of shillings) if there were no opportunities in real estate
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
Fyatu
#26 Posted : Tuesday, September 15, 2020 10:06:39 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,781
Location: Nakuru
tandich wrote:
heri wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
At kobole, this thing is a steal. Value here will be unlocked very quickly and violently and some people will come hapa hapa wazua and start lamenting how they missed an opportunity...

For some of us whose retirement is approaching fast, dividend here is guaranteed 15% of current price


I have never looked at it but seems you are right

But what if rents fall say by 40%


Factor in vacancies and default. Surely Real Estate is not immune from the economic cycle


I agree....These manenos are not for the faint hearted
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
Ericsson
#27 Posted : Tuesday, September 15, 2020 11:59:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,108
Location: NAIROBI
Fyatu wrote:
Ericsson wrote:


When depseration checks in rent can go down which in turn affects valuation.
Britam and Old Mutual UAP have been noting that down in their financial statements


Its all about demand and supply my brother. With an economy growing by >5.5% for the past 15 years, things are going to turnaround for the better.

There is a gentleman putting up a 44-floor apartment block in Upperhill. The Chinese have put up the humongous GTC place in Westlands etc. Surely, these investors are not throwing away their money (billions of shillings) if there were no opportunities in real estate


The 44 floor apartment in upper hill yet to pickup.
Since Jubilee came into power, the economy has been growing due to infrastructure spending and inflation adjustment.
GTC place in Westland, have you heard of any tenant taking up space?
Britam with it's three buildings in upper hill is suffering low occupancy. Same as old mutual UAP.
The investors who have put away billions in real estate will have to wait for for long to recoup their investment
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
deadpoet
#28 Posted : Wednesday, September 16, 2020 9:25:48 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/27/2006
Posts: 459
tandich wrote:
Auctioneers shut Tuskys outlet over Sh30m rent

I hope they can recover some of the outstanding rent


Is the landlord quoted working for the REIT? That 30m owed is more than 70% of the half year profit reported in August. Were those profits based on receivables?
Ericsson
#29 Posted : Wednesday, September 16, 2020 9:35:31 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,108
Location: NAIROBI
deadpoet wrote:
tandich wrote:
Auctioneers shut Tuskys outlet over Sh30m rent

I hope they can recover some of the outstanding rent


Is the landlord quoted working for the REIT? That 30m owed is more than 70% of the half year profit reported in August. Were those profits based on receivables?

Cashflow statement and provisions for bad debt in the P&L statement is what will answer your query.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Fyatu
#30 Posted : Friday, September 18, 2020 12:59:55 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,781
Location: Nakuru
Ericsson wrote:
[quote=Fyatu][quote=Ericsson]

The 44 floor apartment in upper hill yet to pickup.
Since Jubilee came into power, the economy has been growing due to infrastructure spending and inflation adjustment.
GTC place in Westland, have you heard of any tenant taking up space?
Britam with it's three buildings in upper hill is suffering low occupancy. Same as old mutual UAP.
The investors who have put away billions in real estate will have to wait for for long to recoup their investment



My brother, your pessimism is laughable and your goggles suspect( this is not about Jubilee). You have chosen to deliberately not look around you and see for yourself that Kenya has grown up economically so to speak....Everywhere you go small scale businesses are coming up.

To be honest i don't understand what you mean by that kizungu mingi that i have underlined hapo juu...You are deliberately refusing to see that Kenyans are making money in so many ways unlike before where everyone aspired to get employed in an office.

Kawaida Kenyans now have businesses such as babyshops, interior design, clothing lines, African delicacies restaurants,Chinese, Indian delicacy restaurants, executive carwash, executive barbershop etc Nduthi/piki piki, tuk tuk business....others are building fintech apps hapa na pale.Others are delivering Phombe to your doorstep at a fee...etc

In addition,Mpesa agents are scattered allover Kenya like a nonsense, ndengu grown in Kitui is being loaded into Merikabus in Mombasa for export...etc etc.Wengine are growing macadamia and Avocado and even vanilla for export...jameni hii ya infrastructure na inflation ni economy gani?

On the other hand, Mahoteli kubwa kubwa kama Kepinski, GTC hotel,Radisson blu, Movenpick etc. have been opened in the past 7 years enhancing the robust service sector. You will find it interesting that watalii are no longer exclusively wazungus but our very own Africans from Nigeria, Ghana,Uganda, Caribbean na kadhalika


It is a shame that some wazuans expect Kenya to still have those narrow two lane roads, and a railway service built in 1898 while our neighbors are fighting tooth and nail to upgrade their infrastructure and increase their competitiveness. For your information, Kenya is 20 years late of having an expressway, SGR, a modern inland port(Kisumu) and other mega infrastructures.

Did you expect H.E. Uhuru Kenyatta to sit on his laurels during his tenure and leave Kenyans with narrow two-lane dual carriages, 2 berth ports, 1898 railways etc like they have in remote African countries like Niger, South Sudan,Chad, Guinea Conakry, Burundi etc? Wacha jokes rafiki.

Here is a link showing that Nairobi is destined for even taller buildings in the future...i repeat, these investors are not fools to pour cash in investments that will not bring returns.

see links below..

These are the top economies in Africa

Kenya is the only country in top ten that does not depend on commodities.
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
tandich
#31 Posted : Saturday, September 19, 2020 12:50:06 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 188
tandich wrote:
Auctioneers shut Tuskys outlet over Sh30m rent

I hope they can recover some of the outstanding rent


VituVingiSana
#32 Posted : Saturday, September 19, 2020 7:30:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,321
Location: Nairobi
What's the "online custodial trading platform" that Tuskys talks about?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
babashuge
#33 Posted : Sunday, September 20, 2020 4:37:42 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/4/2019
Posts: 60
Location: Nairobi
Fyatu wrote:
heri wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
heri wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
At kobole, this thing is a steal. Value here will be unlocked very quickly and violently and some people will come hapa hapa wazua and start lamenting how they missed an opportunity...

For some of us whose retirement is approaching fast, dividend here is guaranteed 15% of current price


I have never looked at it but seems you are right

But what if rents fall say by 40%


Rent can never go down...that is why people invest in real estate. A 2 bedroom apartment in Kitengela fetching kshs. 20,000 rent monthly today will not be fetching the same amount in year 2030. Likewise,the land that the apartment sits on will also appreciate..The reit fully owns the property in its portfolio some of which is very very prime e.g., Greenspan


Well that has not been my experience. for example in westlands where my employer has an office, the landlord offered deep cuts in rent to stop us moving out . Had been planning to move out before covid

Happening in many other places i know


Personally, i believe this was seasonal COVID19 notwithstanding. I stand to be corrected. Lets see how "The working from home" fad goes.


Yeah, real estate will definitely take a hit, but just as a transition. Can t tell how long the transition but there's always opportunities popping as long as theres a space
shiznit
#34 Posted : Sunday, September 20, 2020 8:35:16 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/21/2013
Posts: 70
Location: KENYA
VituVingiSana wrote:
What's the "online custodial trading platform" that Tuskys talks about?


I would think maybe some form of escrow account set up as part of their negotiations with suppliers, as proof of funds. Just guessing.
“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes
shiznit
#35 Posted : Sunday, September 20, 2020 8:38:12 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/21/2013
Posts: 70
Location: KENYA
I see no hope for Tuskys. PE funds lined up to buy the family shareholders out, and as usual, the wrangles came in the way (contrast with Naivas making this move ages ago, intelligently so).


I think the value on this stock will be properly unlocked if and when Tuskys is replaced as an anchor tenant at Greenspan. Given the location, and the tenant mix at Greenspan, a Quickmart/Carrefour would do amazing.
“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes
Ericsson
#36 Posted : Sunday, September 20, 2020 9:59:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,108
Location: NAIROBI
shiznit wrote:
I see no hope for Tuskys. PE funds lined up to buy the family shareholders out, and as usual, the wrangles came in the way (contrast with Naivas making this move ages ago, intelligently so).


I think the value on this stock will be properly unlocked if and when Tuskys is replaced as an anchor tenant at Greenspan. Given the location, and the tenant mix at Greenspan, a Quickmart/Carrefour would do amazing.


Quickmart out,that is not their style. Check if there is any of their branch in a mall.
Carrefour yet to open a branch in Eastlands.
Only hope in either chandarana or Naivas
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
watesh
#37 Posted : Monday, September 21, 2020 9:45:44 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 849
Location: Kenya
Ericsson wrote:
shiznit wrote:
I see no hope for Tuskys. PE funds lined up to buy the family shareholders out, and as usual, the wrangles came in the way (contrast with Naivas making this move ages ago, intelligently so).


I think the value on this stock will be properly unlocked if and when Tuskys is replaced as an anchor tenant at Greenspan. Given the location, and the tenant mix at Greenspan, a Quickmart/Carrefour would do amazing.


Quickmart out,that is not their style. Check if there is any of their branch in a mall.
Carrefour yet to open a branch in Eastlands.
Only hope in either chandarana or Naivas


Very true. Quickmart said they wont open in malls. Naivas should jump onto this chance and open a proper branch as compared to the much smaller one nearby. Chandarana and Carrefour are a serious doubt.
heri
#38 Posted : Tuesday, November 10, 2020 11:03:15 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 791
Location: nairobi
Did they get an anchor tenant at Greenspan?
Ericsson
#39 Posted : Tuesday, November 10, 2020 11:12:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 9,108
Location: NAIROBI
heri wrote:
Did they get an anchor tenant at Greenspan?


Not yet before Christmas we shall know
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
heri
#40 Posted : Tuesday, November 10, 2020 11:17:53 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 791
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
heri wrote:
Did they get an anchor tenant at Greenspan?


Not yet before Christmas we shall know


How big will the hit on their income and i guess they may not recover some of the rent already recognised?
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