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71 Pages«<6465666768>»
Treasury Bills and Bonds
passiveinvestor
#1301 Posted : Friday, December 06, 2019 11:21:48 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/8/2006
Posts: 103
Angelica _ann wrote:
passiveinvestor wrote:
MatataMingi wrote:
So,we have a 5 year bond in December !!
Considering that the 364 days T.Bill is already approaching 10%,
I think this is likely to have a coupon rate of about 11.5%.
Any thoughts from the board Gurus ???
Thanks

the last 364 days was undersubscribed. I expect 12%


Not with Opus Dei in-charge. Let us compare notes after. Rate will be below 11.5%

Possibly. Opus Dei's powers are overrated. In fact, if he were to stick to his role in this, which is mainly running the auction ON BEHALF of the Govt., then the most he can do is reject bids.
Last 10yr. tap sale: https://www.centralbank....20DATED%202.12.2019.PNG
Was 70% undersubscribed. Combined with the IFB shenanigans where bidders were forced to take a non-market weighted price....highly unlikely NOT to have a meaningful increase.
- Interbank rates have been spiking
- The new Mali product from A-rated Safaricom is paying 10% p.a. overnight (separate discussion needed on where Safaricom expects to get enough of a return to justify paying 10% for deposits. Assume a targeted margin of 30-50% in their "lending")
But yes. Let's wait and see.
AndyC
#1302 Posted : Friday, December 13, 2019 11:00:02 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/21/2015
Posts: 134
passiveinvestor wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
passiveinvestor wrote:
MatataMingi wrote:
So,we have a 5 year bond in December !!
Considering that the 364 days T.Bill is already approaching 10%,
I think this is likely to have a coupon rate of about 11.5%.
Any thoughts from the board Gurus ???
Thanks

the last 364 days was undersubscribed. I expect 12%


Not with Opus Dei in-charge. Let us compare notes after. Rate will be below 11.5%

Possibly. Opus Dei's powers are overrated. In fact, if he were to stick to his role in this, which is mainly running the auction ON BEHALF of the Govt., then the most he can do is reject bids.
Last 10yr. tap sale: https://www.centralbank....20DATED%202.12.2019.PNG
Was 70% undersubscribed. Combined with the IFB shenanigans where bidders were forced to take a non-market weighted price....highly unlikely NOT to have a meaningful increase.
- Interbank rates have been spiking
- The new Mali product from A-rated Safaricom is paying 10% p.a. overnight (separate discussion needed on where Safaricom expects to get enough of a return to justify paying 10% for deposits. Assume a targeted margin of 30-50% in their "lending")
But yes. Let's wait and see.


Results are out. Coupon of 11.492% which means a net of 9.7682%. Mali is great if they can pull it off with the flexibility and rates they promise.

Angelica _ann
#1303 Posted : Friday, December 13, 2019 11:13:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,675
AndyC wrote:
passiveinvestor wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
passiveinvestor wrote:
MatataMingi wrote:
So,we have a 5 year bond in December !!
Considering that the 364 days T.Bill is already approaching 10%,
I think this is likely to have a coupon rate of about 11.5%.
Any thoughts from the board Gurus ???
Thanks

the last 364 days was undersubscribed. I expect 12%


Not with Opus Dei in-charge. Let us compare notes after. Rate will be below 11.5%

Possibly. Opus Dei's powers are overrated. In fact, if he were to stick to his role in this, which is mainly running the auction ON BEHALF of the Govt., then the most he can do is reject bids.
Last 10yr. tap sale: https://www.centralbank....20DATED%202.12.2019.PNG
Was 70% undersubscribed. Combined with the IFB shenanigans where bidders were forced to take a non-market weighted price....highly unlikely NOT to have a meaningful increase.
- Interbank rates have been spiking
- The new Mali product from A-rated Safaricom is paying 10% p.a. overnight (separate discussion needed on where Safaricom expects to get enough of a return to justify paying 10% for deposits. Assume a targeted margin of 30-50% in their "lending")
But yes. Let's wait and see.


Results are out. Coupon of 11.492% which means a net of 9.7682%. Mali is great if they can pull it off with the flexibility and rates they promise.



Was spot-on on the rate!!! smile smile smile

But something has to give next year, either they increase the rates or they go look for money elsewhere.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
slick
#1304 Posted : Friday, December 13, 2019 1:53:41 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
Here is a soundbite for the day.

Western central banks are actively buying their own government sovereign bonds via a mechanism called Quantitative Easing (QE).QE bond buying schemes have been prevalent in US,Eurozone and Japan since the 2008 crisis where these major central banks have bought up over 20 trillion USD equivalent of their own government debt to suppress yields and interest rates and stimulate their economies with ultra low interest rates thus pull themselves out of the 2008 recession.So overwhelming has this bond buying scheme been in Europe and Japan that sovereign debt yields have turned negative (a whooping 17 trillion of global bonds ie 1/4 of the world's debt market has negative yields) thus if an investor in Europe and Japan buys these bonds and holds them to maturity they are destined to lose money and this abnormality has pushed Eurozone and Japanese investors to seek relatively higher yielding US treasuries that yield a paltry 1.7% for the 10 year note.

Strange world we live in where Western central banks create fiat from nothing and buy their own government debt which is akin to debt monetization.The Fed is currently involved in 60 billion USD/month in short term T-Bill purchases and whooping 300 billion/day in repurchase agreements purchases to stem a liquidity crunch in Western financial markets.

Maybe the Kenyan government should cook up an equal scheme ie issue bonds and have CBK buy a large chunk of them pushing yields ever lower and thus lowering loan borrowing costs.Its this scheme that allows Western loan rates e.g. mortgage rates to become a paltry 5% but for course such activities would lead to disaster long term.

Check out this Bloomberg article

https://www.bloomberg.co...s/negative-yield-bonds/


It gets worse.Swiss Central Bank creates francs and uses it to buy US stocks like Facebook and Apple.Japanese central bank creates yen and is the biggest bond and stock ETF holder in Japan.

https://www.holdingschan...onal-bank-top-holdings/

https://asia.nikkei.com/...r-as-liquidity-dries-up

Just imagine if CBK started creating new Kenya shillings and buying stocks of Safaricom,Equity Bank and so forth
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
Taurrus
#1305 Posted : Friday, December 13, 2019 3:27:06 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/25/2015
Posts: 826
Location: Kite
AndyC wrote:
passiveinvestor wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
passiveinvestor wrote:
MatataMingi wrote:
So,we have a 5 year bond in December !!
Considering that the 364 days T.Bill is already approaching 10%,
I think this is likely to have a coupon rate of about 11.5%.
Any thoughts from the board Gurus ???
Thanks

the last 364 days was undersubscribed. I expect 12%


Not with Opus Dei in-charge. Let us compare notes after. Rate will be below 11.5%

Possibly. Opus Dei's powers are overrated. In fact, if he were to stick to his role in this, which is mainly running the auction ON BEHALF of the Govt., then the most he can do is reject bids.
Last 10yr. tap sale: https://www.centralbank....20DATED%202.12.2019.PNG
Was 70% undersubscribed. Combined with the IFB shenanigans where bidders were forced to take a non-market weighted price....highly unlikely NOT to have a meaningful increase.
- Interbank rates have been spiking
- The new Mali product from A-rated Safaricom is paying 10% p.a. overnight (separate discussion needed on where Safaricom expects to get enough of a return to justify paying 10% for deposits. Assume a targeted margin of 30-50% in their "lending")
But yes. Let's wait and see.


Results are out. Coupon of 11.492% which means a net of 9.7682%. Mali is great if they can pull it off with the flexibility and rates they promise.

see
I thought MALI is a con job from kamiti, searched for any literature didn't get any even a mention saf website.
Impunity
#1306 Posted : Monday, December 23, 2019 11:30:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,267
Location: Masada
AndyC wrote:
passiveinvestor wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
passiveinvestor wrote:
MatataMingi wrote:
So,we have a 5 year bond in December !!
Considering that the 364 days T.Bill is already approaching 10%,
I think this is likely to have a coupon rate of about 11.5%.
Any thoughts from the board Gurus ???
Thanks

the last 364 days was undersubscribed. I expect 12%


Not with Opus Dei in-charge. Let us compare notes after. Rate will be below 11.5%

Possibly. Opus Dei's powers are overrated. In fact, if he were to stick to his role in this, which is mainly running the auction ON BEHALF of the Govt., then the most he can do is reject bids.
Last 10yr. tap sale: https://www.centralbank....20DATED%202.12.2019.PNG
Was 70% undersubscribed. Combined with the IFB shenanigans where bidders were forced to take a non-market weighted price....highly unlikely NOT to have a meaningful increase.
- Interbank rates have been spiking
- The new Mali product from A-rated Safaricom is paying 10% p.a. overnight (separate discussion needed on where Safaricom expects to get enough of a return to justify paying 10% for deposits. Assume a targeted margin of 30-50% in their "lending")
But yes. Let's wait and see.


Results are out. Coupon of 11.492% which means a net of 9.7682%. Mali is great if they can pull it off with the flexibility and rates they promise.



Mali investment is capped at 70,000...this is definitely not for mbig mboys.
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

Ericsson
#1307 Posted : Thursday, December 26, 2019 12:51:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,714
Location: NAIROBI
Impunity wrote:
AndyC wrote:
passiveinvestor wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
passiveinvestor wrote:
MatataMingi wrote:
So,we have a 5 year bond in December !!
Considering that the 364 days T.Bill is already approaching 10%,
I think this is likely to have a coupon rate of about 11.5%.
Any thoughts from the board Gurus ???
Thanks

the last 364 days was undersubscribed. I expect 12%


Not with Opus Dei in-charge. Let us compare notes after. Rate will be below 11.5%

Possibly. Opus Dei's powers are overrated. In fact, if he were to stick to his role in this, which is mainly running the auction ON BEHALF of the Govt., then the most he can do is reject bids.
Last 10yr. tap sale: https://www.centralbank....20DATED%202.12.2019.PNG
Was 70% undersubscribed. Combined with the IFB shenanigans where bidders were forced to take a non-market weighted price....highly unlikely NOT to have a meaningful increase.
- Interbank rates have been spiking
- The new Mali product from A-rated Safaricom is paying 10% p.a. overnight (separate discussion needed on where Safaricom expects to get enough of a return to justify paying 10% for deposits. Assume a targeted margin of 30-50% in their "lending")
But yes. Let's wait and see.


Results are out. Coupon of 11.492% which means a net of 9.7682%. Mali is great if they can pull it off with the flexibility and rates they promise.



Mali investment is capped at 70,000...this is definitely not for mbig mboys.

Mbig boys watanunua safaricom shares
MatataMingi
#1308 Posted : Monday, January 13, 2020 4:10:12 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/17/2009
Posts: 355
Location: Where everyone knows you
So, It is the 13th. today, and the January T-Bond as still not been advertised.
I hope it is a 2 year bond like the one in January last year.
That was very heavily over subscribed.
We have already had MANY long term bonds in 2019.
maka
#1309 Posted : Tuesday, January 14, 2020 8:52:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,342
Location: Nairobi
MatataMingi wrote:
So, It is the 13th. today, and the January T-Bond as still not been advertised.
I hope it is a 2 year bond like the one in January last year.
That was very heavily over subscribed.
We have already had MANY long term bonds in 2019.


The government is working on lengthening its maturity profile.
possunt quia posse videntur
MatataMingi
#1310 Posted : Tuesday, January 14, 2020 4:08:51 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/17/2009
Posts: 355
Location: Where everyone knows you
@maka,
I agree with you fully. The Government is "trying" to length its maturity profile.
However, is it succeeding?
I don't think so.
Look at some examples:

- The 2 year bond Fx1/2019/2 issued in January 2019, was hugely oversubscribed with almost 77 Billion in bids.
- The 5 year bond Fx3/2019/5 issued last month was also oversubscribed.
- Even the last 1 year T Bill, 2270/364 dated 13/01/2020 was HUGELY oversubscribed. With 10 Billion on offer, bids were 39.77 Billion. The Government took 36.83 Billion !!!!

All other longer term bonds, issued last year, did not do too well in terms of subscription.

Therefore, I don't believe that investors are too keen on longer term bonds.
Esstiko
#1311 Posted : Tuesday, January 14, 2020 7:21:38 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 6/5/2019
Posts: 17
5 and 10 year floated.
maka
#1312 Posted : Wednesday, January 15, 2020 10:29:14 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,342
Location: Nairobi
Esstiko wrote:
5 and 10 year floated.



smile

Maybe we wait for that 150Bn roads bond they want to issue
possunt quia posse videntur
Esstiko
#1313 Posted : Wednesday, January 15, 2020 12:03:45 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 6/5/2019
Posts: 17
maka wrote:
Esstiko wrote:
5 and 10 year floated.



smile

Maybe we wait for that 150Bn roads bond they want to issue


Any idea when?smile
Ericsson
#1314 Posted : Wednesday, January 15, 2020 12:28:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,714
Location: NAIROBI
Esstiko wrote:
maka wrote:
Esstiko wrote:
5 and 10 year floated.



smile

Maybe we wait for that 150Bn roads bond they want to issue


Any idea when?smile


Don't imagine
Impunity
#1315 Posted : Saturday, January 18, 2020 6:43:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,267
Location: Masada
Ericsson wrote:
Esstiko wrote:
maka wrote:
Esstiko wrote:
5 and 10 year floated.



smile

Maybe we wait for that 150Bn roads bond they want to issue


Any idea when?smile


Don't imagine


That will be IFB...Drool
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

Ericsson
#1316 Posted : Wednesday, January 22, 2020 12:45:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,714
Location: NAIROBI
maka wrote:
Esstiko wrote:
5 and 10 year floated.



smile

Maybe we wait for that 150Bn roads bond they want to issue


The Kenya Roads Board (KRB) has received bids from a consortium of Citi bank, Absa, Renaissance Capital, Equity Group holdings and Rand Merchant Bank seeking to arrange a Ksh 150 Billion financing plan to fund roads development, maintenance, and rehabilitation. Further, Dyer and Blair and Africa Finance Corporation submitted a joint bid.

According to Bloomberg, another group led by NCBA group, Standard Chartered, Co-operative bank, and KCB Group also submitted their bids. Standard Group’s Kenyan Unit and Lion’s head also belong to this last group.
maka
#1317 Posted : Wednesday, January 22, 2020 2:09:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,342
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
maka wrote:
Esstiko wrote:
5 and 10 year floated.



smile

Maybe we wait for that 150Bn roads bond they want to issue


The Kenya Roads Board (KRB) has received bids from a consortium of Citi bank, Absa, Renaissance Capital, Equity Group holdings and Rand Merchant Bank seeking to arrange a Ksh 150 Billion financing plan to fund roads development, maintenance, and rehabilitation. Further, Dyer and Blair and Africa Finance Corporation submitted a joint bid.

According to Bloomberg, another group led by NCBA group, Standard Chartered, Co-operative bank, and KCB Group also submitted their bids. Standard Group’s Kenyan Unit and Lion’s head also belong to this last group.


Everyone thought it was a local IFB....Sad Sad Sad

Chasing lower/cheaper rates....
possunt quia posse videntur
Angelica _ann
#1318 Posted : Wednesday, January 22, 2020 3:11:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,675
maka wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
maka wrote:
Esstiko wrote:
5 and 10 year floated.



smile

Maybe we wait for that 150Bn roads bond they want to issue


The Kenya Roads Board (KRB) has received bids from a consortium of Citi bank, Absa, Renaissance Capital, Equity Group holdings and Rand Merchant Bank seeking to arrange a Ksh 150 Billion financing plan to fund roads development, maintenance, and rehabilitation. Further, Dyer and Blair and Africa Finance Corporation submitted a joint bid.

According to Bloomberg, another group led by NCBA group, Standard Chartered, Co-operative bank, and KCB Group also submitted their bids. Standard Group’s Kenyan Unit and Lion’s head also belong to this last group.


Everyone thought it was a local IFB....Sad Sad Sad

Chasing lower/cheaper rates....


Local market cannot swallow the 150B at ago with a longer tenure the way it is likely to be designed. Of course the 'arrangers' are also vultures in the making and plus back office deals.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
Esstiko
#1319 Posted : Wednesday, January 22, 2020 3:35:05 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 6/5/2019
Posts: 17
Angelica _ann wrote:
maka wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
maka wrote:
Esstiko wrote:
5 and 10 year floated.



smile

Maybe we wait for that 150Bn roads bond they want to issue


The Kenya Roads Board (KRB) has received bids from a consortium of Citi bank, Absa, Renaissance Capital, Equity Group holdings and Rand Merchant Bank seeking to arrange a Ksh 150 Billion financing plan to fund roads development, maintenance, and rehabilitation. Further, Dyer and Blair and Africa Finance Corporation submitted a joint bid.

According to Bloomberg, another group led by NCBA group, Standard Chartered, Co-operative bank, and KCB Group also submitted their bids. Standard Group’s Kenyan Unit and Lion’s head also belong to this last group.


Everyone thought it was a local IFB....Sad Sad Sad

Chasing lower/cheaper rates....


Local market cannot swallow the 150B at ago with a longer tenure the way it is likely to be designed. Of course the 'arrangers' are also vultures in the making and plus back office deals.


Does this imply that no IFBs will be issued this year?

Esstiko
#1320 Posted : Wednesday, January 22, 2020 3:52:10 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 6/5/2019
Posts: 17
Ericsson wrote:
maka wrote:
Esstiko wrote:
5 and 10 year floated.



smile

Maybe we wait for that 150Bn roads bond they want to issue


The Kenya Roads Board (KRB) has received bids from a consortium of Citi bank, Absa, Renaissance Capital, Equity Group holdings and Rand Merchant Bank seeking to arrange a Ksh 150 Billion financing plan to fund roads development, maintenance, and rehabilitation. Further, Dyer and Blair and Africa Finance Corporation submitted a joint bid.

According to Bloomberg, another group led by NCBA group, Standard Chartered, Co-operative bank, and KCB Group also submitted their bids. Standard Group’s Kenyan Unit and Lion’s head also belong to this last group.


My understanding of this is that the banks will act as transaction advisors. What will be the role of CBK in this because KRB has been given the mandate to borrow funds for infrastructure development?
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