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162 Pages«<160161162
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
lochaz-index
#3221 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2020 11:13:33 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,002
mnandii wrote:


Remember our 36/- target on Safaricom. Be ready to SHORT then.

Watching this one closely.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
mnandii
#3222 Posted : Friday, January 10, 2020 9:22:05 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 1,882


NASI is in our target zone of 171.72.

Expect moves to below 139 soon.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
wukan
#3223 Posted : Thursday, January 16, 2020 12:31:59 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,255
lochaz-index wrote:

I think this is the year that NSE20 prints sub-2000 that we've been waiting for for ages. NPLs currently at around 12% of the loan book should peak at around 18-20% and will need to be flushed out through the P&L either this year or next. However, the biggest risks for banks lie in their bond and real estate portfolios.

Having dodged a fiscal crisis in the capping regime, treasury and cbk will be doing alot financial gymnastics to keep this ship afloat both on the interest rate and exchange rate fronts. The needless demonetization exercise will bite a chunk off annual growth rates. I expect this to be a politically expensive year for the regime and likely a course changing one as political capital is expended to assuage civil unease/unrest as economic hardships bite.


#post2409 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 5:59:41 PM

Quote:
bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40

wukan wrote:
Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom


Continuing on this line of thought. The catfight between treasury and CBK ended and market did a double bottom around 2500. This still hasn't cured the malaise in the market and general economy.

why-the expectation of falling asset prices. Started off with equities and now bonds and real estate. You now have borrowers saving by paying down the debt and the savings hanging around the banking system instead of being invested.

Treasury has run out of runway to offer fiscal stimulus at a time when it's needed and CBK has done very timid steps. Now we have a situation in which treasury is doing deeps cuts(ideally shud have been done in 2017-18) then paying off suppliers who then pay off their debts (deleverage). Overall effect is draining off cash leading to falling incomes, more illiquidity and more insolvency. CBK and treasury after the catfight are now locked in a romantic dance which will keep the real economy in a more depressed state for quite some time.

Best thing is to watch the romantic dance until something gives. Continue to pay down debt and let the savings hang around the banking system, money markets till you see credible future inflation.
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