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KenyaRe FY19 - FY23 (Both Inclusive)
sparkly
#101 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 5:51:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 6,855
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
Good opportunity to SELL....

Once in a lifetime opportunity


A bonus issue doesnt change fundamentals.

True value cum bonus is circa KShs 36-40 so even after bonus, Kenya Re should trade at circa KShs 9.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Kenyan Oracle
#102 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 6:22:17 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 144
VituVingiSana wrote:
@maichblack
@monk
@KenyanOracle
@Heri
@Aguy
@Kaufman
@miennyma

Who is on this bus to Canaan with me?



Am with you boss, now bonus has been thrown into the mix
You lose money chasing women, but you never lose women chasing money - NAS
obiero
#103 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 7:08:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 11,481
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
Good opportunity to SELL....

Once in a lifetime opportunity


A bonus issue doesnt change fundamentals.

True value cum bonus is circa KShs 36-40 so even after bonus, Kenya Re should trade at circa KShs 9.

Have you seen I&M?
COOP 5,500; KCB 3,700; KQ 221,100
guru267
#104 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 7:28:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,629
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
Good opportunity to SELL....

Once in a lifetime opportunity


A bonus issue doesnt change fundamentals.

True value cum bonus is circa KShs 36-40 so even after bonus, Kenya Re should trade at circa KShs 9.


Kenya Re has traded on a P/E ratio of 3-5 for the last 5 years. If this persists ex bonus the share price will not go above Kshs 4. Cum bonus it should be trading where it currently is. Anything above Kshs 17 and i will offload a significant chunk.
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
xxxxx
#105 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 7:34:19 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/20/2008
Posts: 438
guru267 wrote:
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
Good opportunity to SELL....

Once in a lifetime opportunity


A bonus issue doesnt change fundamentals.

True value cum bonus is circa KShs 36-40 so even after bonus, Kenya Re should trade at circa KShs 9.


Kenya Re has traded on a P/E ratio of 3-5 for the last 5 years. If this persists ex bonus the share price will not go above Kshs 4. Cum bonus it should be trading where it currently is. Anything above Kshs 17 and i will offload a significant chunk.


That's exactly why I believe its a value trap....or is it?? It makes value investing so PAINFUL
Horton
#106 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 7:37:57 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,396
Location: Nairobi
xxxxx wrote:
guru267 wrote:
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
Good opportunity to SELL....

Once in a lifetime opportunity


A bonus issue doesnt change fundamentals.

True value cum bonus is circa KShs 36-40 so even after bonus, Kenya Re should trade at circa KShs 9.


Kenya Re has traded on a P/E ratio of 3-5 for the last 5 years. If this persists ex bonus the share price will not go above Kshs 4. Cum bonus it should be trading where it currently is. Anything above Kshs 17 and i will offload a significant chunk.


That's exactly why I believe its a value trap....or is it?? It makes value investing so PAINFUL



Definitely value trap
I own shares in EQTY @39/-, CYTONN, BRK.B, Almasi Beverages and a few other private small businesses

obiero
#107 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 7:45:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 11,481
Location: nairobi
Horton wrote:
xxxxx wrote:
guru267 wrote:
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
Good opportunity to SELL....

Once in a lifetime opportunity


A bonus issue doesnt change fundamentals.

True value cum bonus is circa KShs 36-40 so even after bonus, Kenya Re should trade at circa KShs 9.


Kenya Re has traded on a P/E ratio of 3-5 for the last 5 years. If this persists ex bonus the share price will not go above Kshs 4. Cum bonus it should be trading where it currently is. Anything above Kshs 17 and i will offload a significant chunk.


That's exactly why I believe its a value trap....or is it?? It makes value investing so PAINFUL



Definitely value trap

Definitely going sub KES 4 ex bonus in the current bear run.. I put my life on this
COOP 5,500; KCB 3,700; KQ 221,100
VituVingiSana
#108 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2019 10:52:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 15,714
Location: Nairobi
Public Service Announcement


The Conviction To Hold

Extraordinary returns follow extraordinary discipline. Discipline in buying and selling, and maybe the most important one of all, holding. Developing the conviction to hold is something that I’ve learned over time. It didn’t come easy. The basis of this article is to give some insight on how to develop the conviction to hold your winners. It is very tempting to sell along the way, and it’s okay to take a little off the table, but the big money is made by holding.

“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.” — Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Many of us, myself included, look at stocks that have made big moves and think to ourselves, “If I would have only knew about that company and bought it back then.” But would you really have developed the conviction to hold during the run up? The problem is that to achieve a multi-bagger in the portfolio, you have to hold a multi-bagger. And if you want it to change your life, you need to hold a lot of it.

Don’t bother finding the next multi-bagger if you aren’t going to develop the conviction to hold it

Over the last decade, I’ve been lucky enough to be invested in a few stocks that have gone up 5-10-20-30x over a multi-year time horizon. From my experience, the only way to hold onto a big position after it makes a big move is to know the underlying company better than anyone else. Greed and fear will test your resolve, so you need to learn to keep these emotions in check. You need to believe in your due diligence and form an unwavering conviction.

So how do you develop the conviction to hold?

A lot of due diligence is on the front-end of a buying decision, but it certainly doesn’t stop there. The maintenance due diligence following the buy decision is even more important. For me, I talk to management regularly and keep close watch of all the ancillary forces and trends that are driving the company’s business. My “edge” is knowing my positions better than anyone else. This doesn’t mean I’m going to be right, but the more I know the better.

I think many misperceive high conviction for close-mindedness, ignorance, and arrogance. The conviction I’m talking about is quite the opposite. You need to constantly assess your positions and openly listen to counter arguments. Only then will you have the conviction to hold multi-baggers because you will understand all sides to the story. You also need to develop a thick skin. If you are not ready to be criticized for your convictions than you aren’t ready to make real money.

I believe most investors focus too much on selling strategies and not enough time on knowing what they own. Selling strategies such as, “Sell half after a stock doubles” or “When a position reaches 10% of the portfolio, sell it down to 8%” are meant for lazy investors. These selling metrics-formulas-strategies sound great in academia or when selling an investment strategy to a bunch of lemmings who can’t think for themselves. The truth is if you know what you own at all times, you’ll know when to sell.

In many cases the stocks I’ve owned were better buys after they doubled then when I initially bought them. In many cases when a position became 30% of my portfolio there was a reason for it. The underlying business was doing really well, or institutions were just starting to nibble on shares, so why would I sell it. Just because a stock doubles, triples, etc, doesn’t mean it should be sold. Stocks should be sold when your maintenance due diligence shows something has changed. If you know the story better than anyone, you’ll likely get clues well before the rest of the market. When a company performs, and the story hasn’t changed, stop trying to change it. Enjoy the ride.

When a stock goes on a multi-year run there will be long periods of time when nothing happens. These are consolidation periods when old shareholders are selling and new investors are buying in. You will notice a 12-month period of time in this three-year chart where the stock does nothing. This is very normal.

Even in this amazing chart you’ll find a 10-month period where the stock didn’t go anywhere

A big part of successful investing is becoming content doing nothing. If you are in great companies, a lot of times your biggest risk is boredom. Warren Buffett’s famous quote, “Our favorite holding period is forever”. If he likes where the business is headed, he’ll continue to hold it and probably buy more. Don’t be active for activity sake. Remember, there are no day traders on the Forbes 400 list. Learn to be content holding and doing nothing.

“Patience is power.

Patience is not an absence of action;

rather it is “timing”

it waits on the right time to act,

for the right principles

and in the right way.”

— Fulton J. Sheen

As a microcap investor who invests in companies with little to no institutional ownership, I want to hold for the institutional rally. When a management continues to execute on a great story, at some point it’s going to attract institutional inflows. You will see this when an illiquid stock all of sudden gets propelled by a sustained period of above average volume. Hello Institutions!

You can literally see the institutional rally in this chart of Vertex Energy (VTNR):

A multi-year run is made up of a bunch of mini-cycles that can last weeks or months. During these times the stock can become undervalued or overvalued. Quite a few professional investors I know like to trade 10-20% of their full position during these swings. For my psyche I’ve found it to be counter productive. If I own a $5 stock and think it might go back to $4 before it goes to $10 in 12 months, I’m fine simply holding it through the mini-cycles.

I hope I’ve helped shed some light on a hard but lucrative topic. Many investors spend all their time trying to find great microcap companies only to sell them after quick paltry gains. If management is executing and the story hasn’t changed, hold on for the real money. Find great companies, develop the conviction to hold them, and it will change your life.

Applause Applause Applause

https://microcapclub.com.../the-conviction-to-hold/
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
xxxxx
#109 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2019 3:03:59 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/20/2008
Posts: 438
[quote=VituVingiSana]Public Service Announcement


The Conviction To Hold

Extraordinary returns follow extraordinary discipline. Discipline in buying and selling, and maybe the most important one of all, holding. Developing the conviction to hold is something that I’ve learned over time. It didn’t come easy. The basis of this article is to give some insight on how to develop the conviction to hold your winners. It is very tempting to sell along the way, and it’s okay to take a little off the table, but the big money is made by holding.

“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.” — Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Many of us, myself included, look at stocks that have made big moves and think to ourselves, “If I would have only knew about that company and bought it back then.” But would you really have developed the conviction to hold during the run up? The problem is that to achieve a multi-bagger in the portfolio, you have to hold a multi-bagger. And if you want it to change your life, you need to hold a lot of it.

Don’t bother finding the next multi-bagger if you aren’t going to develop the conviction to hold it

Over the last decade, I’ve been lucky enough to be invested in a few stocks that have gone up 5-10-20-30x over a multi-year time horizon. From my experience, the only way to hold onto a big position after it makes a big move is to know the underlying company better than anyone else. Greed and fear will test your resolve, so you need to learn to keep these emotions in check. You need to believe in your due diligence and form an unwavering conviction.

So how do you develop the conviction to hold?

A lot of due diligence is on the front-end of a buying decision, but it certainly doesn’t stop there. The maintenance due diligence following the buy decision is even more important. For me, I talk to management regularly and keep close watch of all the ancillary forces and trends that are driving the company’s business. My “edge” is knowing my positions better than anyone else. This doesn’t mean I’m going to be right, but the more I know the better.

I think many misperceive high conviction for close-mindedness, ignorance, and arrogance. The conviction I’m talking about is quite the opposite. You need to constantly assess your positions and openly listen to counter arguments. Only then will you have the conviction to hold multi-baggers because you will understand all sides to the story. You also need to develop a thick skin. If you are not ready to be criticized for your convictions than you aren’t ready to make real money.

I believe most investors focus too much on selling strategies and not enough time on knowing what they own. Selling strategies such as, “Sell half after a stock doubles” or “When a position reaches 10% of the portfolio, sell it down to 8%” are meant for lazy investors. These selling metrics-formulas-strategies sound great in academia or when selling an investment strategy to a bunch of lemmings who can’t think for themselves. The truth is if you know what you own at all times, you’ll know when to sell.

In many cases the stocks I’ve owned were better buys after they doubled then when I initially bought them. In many cases when a position became 30% of my portfolio there was a reason for it. The underlying business was doing really well, or institutions were just starting to nibble on shares, so why would I sell it. Just because a stock doubles, triples, etc, doesn’t mean it should be sold. Stocks should be sold when your maintenance due diligence shows something has changed. If you know the story better than anyone, you’ll likely get clues well before the rest of the market. When a company performs, and the story hasn’t changed, stop trying to change it. Enjoy the ride.

When a stock goes on a multi-year run there will be long periods of time when nothing happens. These are consolidation periods when old shareholders are selling and new investors are buying in. You will notice a 12-month period of time in this three-year chart where the stock does nothing. This is very normal.

Even in this amazing chart you’ll find a 10-month period where the stock didn’t go anywhere

A big part of successful investing is becoming content doing nothing. If you are in great companies, a lot of times your biggest risk is boredom. Warren Buffett’s famous quote, “Our favorite holding period is forever”. If he likes where the business is headed, he’ll continue to hold it and probably buy more. Don’t be active for activity sake. Remember, there are no day traders on the Forbes 400 list. Learn to be content holding and doing nothing.

“Patience is power.

Patience is not an absence of action;

rather it is “timing”

it waits on the right time to act,

for the right principles

and in the right way.”

— Fulton J. Sheen

As a microcap investor who invests in companies with little to no institutional ownership, I want to hold for the institutional rally. When a management continues to execute on a great story, at some point it’s going to attract institutional inflows. You will see this when an illiquid stock all of sudden gets propelled by a sustained period of above average volume. Hello Institutions!

You can literally see the institutional rally in this chart of Vertex Energy (VTNR):

A multi-year run is made up of a bunch of mini-cycles that can last weeks or months. During these times the stock can become undervalued or overvalued. Quite a few professional investors I know like to trade 10-20% of their full position during these swings. For my psyche I’ve found it to be counter productive. If I own a $5 stock and think it might go back to $4 before it goes to $10 in 12 months, I’m fine simply holding it through the mini-cycles.

I hope I’ve helped shed some light on a hard but lucrative topic. Many investors spend all their time trying to find great microcap companies only to sell them after quick paltry gains. If management is executing and the story hasn’t changed, hold on for the real money. Find great companies, develop the conviction to hold them, and it will change your life.

Applause Applause Applause

https://microcapclub.com...the-conviction-to-hold/[/quote]


I do enjoy Ian Cassel's writings.
Spikes
#110 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2019 6:34:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,537
Location: Mombasa
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
Good opportunity to SELL....

Once in a lifetime opportunity


A bonus issue doesnt change fundamentals.

True value cum bonus is circa KShs 36-40 so even after bonus, Kenya Re should trade at circa KShs 9.


'True value' is in your conviction but the market speaks otherwise. I know the majority of Kenya Re lovers bought this stock with gullibility at kes 20-25 and this may be the highest peak cum bonus. In essence traders will make more money than investors who have held for at least 5 years. Traders win nearly all the time. Wazuan investors in Kenya Re kaput . Zero sum game.
Just like energy that mines it, Bitcoin is never created nor destroyed. ...cryptography 101
Ericsson
#111 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2019 7:25:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 6,571
Location: NAIROBI
Spikes wrote:
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
Good opportunity to SELL....

Once in a lifetime opportunity


A bonus issue doesnt change fundamentals.

True value cum bonus is circa KShs 36-40 so even after bonus, Kenya Re should trade at circa KShs 9.


'True value' is in your conviction but the market speaks otherwise. I know the majority of Kenya Re lovers bought this stock with gullibility at kes 20-25 and this may be the highest peak cum bonus. In essence traders will make more money than investors who have held for at least 5 years. Traders win nearly all the time. Wazuan investors in Kenya Re kaput . Zero sum game.


All that matters is what time you bought and the price.
Spikes
#112 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2019 7:28:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,537
Location: Mombasa
Ericsson wrote:
Spikes wrote:
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
Good opportunity to SELL....

Once in a lifetime opportunity


A bonus issue doesnt change fundamentals.

True value cum bonus is circa KShs 36-40 so even after bonus, Kenya Re should trade at circa KShs 9.


'True value' is in your conviction but the market speaks otherwise. I know the majority of Kenya Re lovers bought this stock with gullibility at kes 20-25 and this may be the highest peak cum bonus. In essence traders will make more money than investors who have held for at least 5 years. Traders win nearly all the time. Wazuan investors in Kenya Re kaput . Zero sum game.


All that matters is what time you bought and the price.


Applause Applause Applause
Just like energy that mines it, Bitcoin is never created nor destroyed. ...cryptography 101
Ebenyo
#113 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2019 7:49:22 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,608
Location: Kitale
Spikes wrote:
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
Good opportunity to SELL....

Once in a lifetime opportunity


A bonus issue doesnt change fundamentals.

True value cum bonus is circa KShs 36-40 so even after bonus, Kenya Re should trade at circa KShs 9.


'True value' is in your conviction but the market speaks otherwise. I know the majority of Kenya Re lovers bought this stock with gullibility at kes 20-25 and this may be the highest peak cum bonus. In essence traders will make more money than investors who have held for at least 5 years. Traders win nearly all the time. Wazuan investors in Kenya Re kaput . Zero sum game.




I started buying when it was 20-22.Untill recently my ABP was 21.I bought some few more before the bonus announcement and my ABP is now 19.I'm waiting for bonus issues to be credited.I hear the price will be 3 after bonus.
Then i will start buying more at 3 and continue averaging down my Abp.
With more additional shares coming to the market,this will improve liquidity.With KENRE good performance,the price has high chances of going above 3 after sometime.
There will be sharp traders who will not miss an opportunity to buy KENRE at 3.They will snap all shares and later sell at 10!
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Spikes
#114 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2019 9:57:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,537
Location: Mombasa
Ebenyo wrote:
Spikes wrote:
sparkly wrote:
obiero wrote:
the deal wrote:
Good opportunity to SELL....

Once in a lifetime opportunity


A bonus issue doesnt change fundamentals.

True value cum bonus is circa KShs 36-40 so even after bonus, Kenya Re should trade at circa KShs 9.


'True value' is in your conviction but the market speaks otherwise. I know the majority of Kenya Re lovers bought this stock with gullibility at kes 20-25 and this may be the highest peak cum bonus. In essence traders will make more money than investors who have held for at least 5 years. Traders win nearly all the time. Wazuan investors in Kenya Re kaput . Zero sum game.




I started buying when it was 20-22.Untill recently my ABP was 21.I bought some few more before the bonus announcement and my ABP is now 19.I'm waiting for bonus issues to be credited.I hear the price will be 3 after bonus.
Then i will start buying more at 3 and continue averaging down my Abp.
With more additional shares coming to the market,this will improve liquidity.With KENRE good performance,the price has high chances of going above 3 after sometime.
There will be sharp traders who will not miss an opportunity to buy KENRE at 3.They will snap all shares and later sell at 10!


As for me I believe in trading/speculating/shorting...I don't invest and hold my funds whether in currencies/cryptos/stocks. I discovered trading is more profitable than investing because of compounded capital gains.
Just like energy that mines it, Bitcoin is never created nor destroyed. ...cryptography 101
Superprime1
#115 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2019 10:54:06 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/2/2018
Posts: 194
[quote=VituVingiSana]Public Service Announcement


The Conviction To Hold

Extraordinary returns follow extraordinary discipline. Discipline in buying and selling, and maybe the most important one of all, holding. Developing the conviction to hold is something that I’ve learned over time. It didn’t come easy. The basis of this article is to give some insight on how to develop the conviction to hold your winners. It is very tempting to sell along the way, and it’s okay to take a little off the table, but the big money is made by holding.

“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.” — Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Many of us, myself included, look at stocks that have made big moves and think to ourselves, “If I would have only knew about that company and bought it back then.” But would you really have developed the conviction to hold during the run up? The problem is that to achieve a multi-bagger in the portfolio, you have to hold a multi-bagger. And if you want it to change your life, you need to hold a lot of it.

Don’t bother finding the next multi-bagger if you aren’t going to develop the conviction to hold it

Over the last decade, I’ve been lucky enough to be invested in a few stocks that have gone up 5-10-20-30x over a multi-year time horizon. From my experience, the only way to hold onto a big position after it makes a big move is to know the underlying company better than anyone else. Greed and fear will test your resolve, so you need to learn to keep these emotions in check. You need to believe in your due diligence and form an unwavering conviction.

So how do you develop the conviction to hold?

A lot of due diligence is on the front-end of a buying decision, but it certainly doesn’t stop there. The maintenance due diligence following the buy decision is even more important. For me, I talk to management regularly and keep close watch of all the ancillary forces and trends that are driving the company’s business. My “edge” is knowing my positions better than anyone else. This doesn’t mean I’m going to be right, but the more I know the better.

I think many misperceive high conviction for close-mindedness, ignorance, and arrogance. The conviction I’m talking about is quite the opposite. You need to constantly assess your positions and openly listen to counter arguments. Only then will you have the conviction to hold multi-baggers because you will understand all sides to the story. You also need to develop a thick skin. If you are not ready to be criticized for your convictions than you aren’t ready to make real money.

I believe most investors focus too much on selling strategies and not enough time on knowing what they own. Selling strategies such as, “Sell half after a stock doubles” or “When a position reaches 10% of the portfolio, sell it down to 8%” are meant for lazy investors. These selling metrics-formulas-strategies sound great in academia or when selling an investment strategy to a bunch of lemmings who can’t think for themselves. The truth is if you know what you own at all times, you’ll know when to sell.

In many cases the stocks I’ve owned were better buys after they doubled then when I initially bought them. In many cases when a position became 30% of my portfolio there was a reason for it. The underlying business was doing really well, or institutions were just starting to nibble on shares, so why would I sell it. Just because a stock doubles, triples, etc, doesn’t mean it should be sold. Stocks should be sold when your maintenance due diligence shows something has changed. If you know the story better than anyone, you’ll likely get clues well before the rest of the market. When a company performs, and the story hasn’t changed, stop trying to change it. Enjoy the ride.

When a stock goes on a multi-year run there will be long periods of time when nothing happens. These are consolidation periods when old shareholders are selling and new investors are buying in. You will notice a 12-month period of time in this three-year chart where the stock does nothing. This is very normal.

Even in this amazing chart you’ll find a 10-month period where the stock didn’t go anywhere

A big part of successful investing is becoming content doing nothing. If you are in great companies, a lot of times your biggest risk is boredom. Warren Buffett’s famous quote, “Our favorite holding period is forever”. If he likes where the business is headed, he’ll continue to hold it and probably buy more. Don’t be active for activity sake. Remember, there are no day traders on the Forbes 400 list. Learn to be content holding and doing nothing.

“Patience is power.

Patience is not an absence of action;

rather it is “timing”

it waits on the right time to act,

for the right principles

and in the right way.”

— Fulton J. Sheen

As a microcap investor who invests in companies with little to no institutional ownership, I want to hold for the institutional rally. When a management continues to execute on a great story, at some point it’s going to attract institutional inflows. You will see this when an illiquid stock all of sudden gets propelled by a sustained period of above average volume. Hello Institutions!

You can literally see the institutional rally in this chart of Vertex Energy (VTNR):

A multi-year run is made up of a bunch of mini-cycles that can last weeks or months. During these times the stock can become undervalued or overvalued. Quite a few professional investors I know like to trade 10-20% of their full position during these swings. For my psyche I’ve found it to be counter productive. If I own a $5 stock and think it might go back to $4 before it goes to $10 in 12 months, I’m fine simply holding it through the mini-cycles.

I hope I’ve helped shed some light on a hard but lucrative topic. Many investors spend all their time trying to find great microcap companies only to sell them after quick paltry gains. If management is executing and the story hasn’t changed, hold on for the real money. Find great companies, develop the conviction to hold them, and it will change your life.

Applause Applause Applause

https://microcapclub.com...the-conviction-to-hold/[/quote]

Applause Applause
A very good read. But of course we have to localise it to NSE, where info flow is skewed and facts tend to be misrepresented. And shafting is quite regular.

For KNRE, however, we hold.Pray Pray
guru267
#116 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2019 11:12:34 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,629
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Public Service Announcement


The Conviction To Hold

Extraordinary returns follow extraordinary discipline. Discipline in buying and selling, and maybe the most important one of all, holding. Developing the conviction to hold is something that I’ve learned over time. It didn’t come easy. The basis of this article is to give some insight on how to develop the conviction to hold your winners. It is very tempting to sell along the way, and it’s okay to take a little off the table, but the big money is made by holding.

“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.” — Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Many of us, myself included, look at stocks that have made big moves and think to ourselves, “If I would have only knew about that company and bought it back then.” But would you really have developed the conviction to hold during the run up? The problem is that to achieve a multi-bagger in the portfolio, you have to hold a multi-bagger. And if you want it to change your life, you need to hold a lot of it.

Don’t bother finding the next multi-bagger if you aren’t going to develop the conviction to hold it

Over the last decade, I’ve been lucky enough to be invested in a few stocks that have gone up 5-10-20-30x over a multi-year time horizon. From my experience, the only way to hold onto a big position after it makes a big move is to know the underlying company better than anyone else. Greed and fear will test your resolve, so you need to learn to keep these emotions in check. You need to believe in your due diligence and form an unwavering conviction.

So how do you develop the conviction to hold?

A lot of due diligence is on the front-end of a buying decision, but it certainly doesn’t stop there. The maintenance due diligence following the buy decision is even more important. For me, I talk to management regularly and keep close watch of all the ancillary forces and trends that are driving the company’s business. My “edge” is knowing my positions better than anyone else. This doesn’t mean I’m going to be right, but the more I know the better.

I think many misperceive high conviction for close-mindedness, ignorance, and arrogance. The conviction I’m talking about is quite the opposite. You need to constantly assess your positions and openly listen to counter arguments. Only then will you have the conviction to hold multi-baggers because you will understand all sides to the story. You also need to develop a thick skin. If you are not ready to be criticized for your convictions than you aren’t ready to make real money.

I believe most investors focus too much on selling strategies and not enough time on knowing what they own. Selling strategies such as, “Sell half after a stock doubles” or “When a position reaches 10% of the portfolio, sell it down to 8%” are meant for lazy investors. These selling metrics-formulas-strategies sound great in academia or when selling an investment strategy to a bunch of lemmings who can’t think for themselves. The truth is if you know what you own at all times, you’ll know when to sell.

In many cases the stocks I’ve owned were better buys after they doubled then when I initially bought them. In many cases when a position became 30% of my portfolio there was a reason for it. The underlying business was doing really well, or institutions were just starting to nibble on shares, so why would I sell it. Just because a stock doubles, triples, etc, doesn’t mean it should be sold. Stocks should be sold when your maintenance due diligence shows something has changed. If you know the story better than anyone, you’ll likely get clues well before the rest of the market. When a company performs, and the story hasn’t changed, stop trying to change it. Enjoy the ride.

When a stock goes on a multi-year run there will be long periods of time when nothing happens. These are consolidation periods when old shareholders are selling and new investors are buying in. You will notice a 12-month period of time in this three-year chart where the stock does nothing. This is very normal.

Even in this amazing chart you’ll find a 10-month period where the stock didn’t go anywhere

A big part of successful investing is becoming content doing nothing. If you are in great companies, a lot of times your biggest risk is boredom. Warren Buffett’s famous quote, “Our favorite holding period is forever”. If he likes where the business is headed, he’ll continue to hold it and probably buy more. Don’t be active for activity sake. Remember, there are no day traders on the Forbes 400 list. Learn to be content holding and doing nothing.

“Patience is power.

Patience is not an absence of action;

rather it is “timing”

it waits on the right time to act,

for the right principles

and in the right way.”

— Fulton J. Sheen

As a microcap investor who invests in companies with little to no institutional ownership, I want to hold for the institutional rally. When a management continues to execute on a great story, at some point it’s going to attract institutional inflows. You will see this when an illiquid stock all of sudden gets propelled by a sustained period of above average volume. Hello Institutions!

You can literally see the institutional rally in this chart of Vertex Energy (VTNR):

A multi-year run is made up of a bunch of mini-cycles that can last weeks or months. During these times the stock can become undervalued or overvalued. Quite a few professional investors I know like to trade 10-20% of their full position during these swings. For my psyche I’ve found it to be counter productive. If I own a $5 stock and think it might go back to $4 before it goes to $10 in 12 months, I’m fine simply holding it through the mini-cycles.

I hope I’ve helped shed some light on a hard but lucrative topic. Many investors spend all their time trying to find great microcap companies only to sell them after quick paltry gains. If management is executing and the story hasn’t changed, hold on for the real money. Find great companies, develop the conviction to hold them, and it will change your life.

Applause Applause Applause

https://microcapclub.com...the-conviction-to-hold/


This is all well and good in markets where full disclosure is the order of the day. With the regular misinformation and regular shafting that I have seen over the years in NSE especially from GOK controlled companies this strategy simply doesn't work. Especially with GOK companies.
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Ericsson
#117 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2019 7:15:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 6,571
Location: NAIROBI
Kenya Re FY 2019 my projection is an EPS of ksh.1 or Profit After Tax of ksh.2.8bn
Dividend per share of ksh.0.25-0.3 post bonus issue.
Price range post release of the FY2019 results ksh.7-8
young
#118 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2019 8:38:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 1,862
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Ericsson wrote:
Kenya Re FY 2019 my projection is an EPS of ksh.1 or Profit After Tax of ksh.2.8bn
Dividend per share of ksh.0.25-0.3 post bonus issue.
Price range post release of the FY2019 results ksh.7-8



"Kindly" expect 10 cent div next year with EPS of 65 cents. Reinsurance sector is at distress coupled with lack lustre GOK owned management .
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
obiero
#119 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2019 8:53:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 11,481
Location: nairobi
young wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Kenya Re FY 2019 my projection is an EPS of ksh.1 or Profit After Tax of ksh.2.8bn
Dividend per share of ksh.0.25-0.3 post bonus issue.
Price range post release of the FY2019 results ksh.7-8



"Kindly" expect 10 cent div next year with EPS of 65 cents. Reinsurance sector is at distress coupled with lack lustre GOK owned management .

Let those with eyes read.. This is the truth
COOP 5,500; KCB 3,700; KQ 221,100
Ebenyo
#120 Posted : Thursday, May 16, 2019 9:34:22 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,608
Location: Kitale
obiero wrote:
young wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Kenya Re FY 2019 my projection is an EPS of ksh.1 or Profit After Tax of ksh.2.8bn
Dividend per share of ksh.0.25-0.3 post bonus issue.
Price range post release of the FY2019 results ksh.7-8



"Kindly" expect 10 cent div next year with EPS of 65 cents. Reinsurance sector is at distress coupled with lack lustre GOK owned management .

Let those with eyes read.. This is the truth




We shall revisit this post next year after KENRE release FY 2019 results.Then the truth will set us free.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
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