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27 Pages«<24252627>
KenolKobil 2018 and beyond
VituVingiSana
#501 Posted : Wednesday, March 13, 2019 9:22:40 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 15,264
Location: Nairobi
peep wrote:
No mulla yet!! Is I&M sitting on my small ingot?

Stanbic Bank is sending the moola in batches. They have upto 15 days from the date of the approval.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
obiero
#502 Posted : Wednesday, March 13, 2019 12:24:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 11,061
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
I like the way VVS amenyenyekea siku hizi on being bought. I remember when 'we' small wanjikus shareholders of Brook Bond (sp) were bought a decade ago - thereabouts - haki aliongea mbaya. Wacha tu. Time teaches & heals everything.

Whoa! What did I do?
Unilever offered a low price (14/-?) for the shares BUT it was their choice to offer what they want. Some minorities remained shareholders in Unilever Tea and have received some decent dividends.
Same with Seaboard and Unga. I remain a minority in Unga but if I am offered a "fair" price then I will bail out.
And Marshalls which recently sold its stake in AVA for 800mn+...

KK: One can probably remain as a minority if Rubis doesn't get 90% but I choose to "leave" KK at 23/- given there are some sweet bargains out there.

A cheetah never changes its stripes. Huyu mzee bado anaongea mbaya tena sana, na ameibiwa! Sold short. He will never tell you his ABP

Interesting. I don't sit around calculating ABPs though I may have an idea.
It's not a relevant metric though I may refer to it at times to calculate a return.

I sold my KQ and bought KK.
So you recommend I buy KQ with the proceeds from KK?
If yes, why?

You bought KQ at KES 41 and sold at KES 14. Then used the proceeds to buy KK at KES 18.5 which you have been hustled out of at KES 23. Considering entire trail of the two investments, you are in a net cash loss position and you know it, hence the poems :)
Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
OK.
But now what should I do?
Should I use my KK cash to buy KQ at the super-discounted price of 5.25?
Will KQ help me recover my losses from the debacles above?

Please, please Prophet Jakom Owuor Obiero, send me a sign!

*For anyone who doesn't know my online relationship with @Obiero, please do not refer to this exchange as research or recommendation*

Wait for the FY 2018 loss announcement projected at KES 5.6B and then buy on the downturn.. I see no floor, but upon JKIA takeover, KES 12 is guaranteed
COOP 5,500; KCB 3,700; KQ 96,100
Pesa Nane
#503 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2019 10:54:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 3,992
Location: 08c
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
mlennyma
#504 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2019 12:37:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 5,913
Location: nairobi
Pesa Nane wrote:

Are we interested and we have been bought?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
muandiwambeu
#505 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2019 12:55:18 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,094
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
I like the way VVS amenyenyekea siku hizi on being bought. I remember when 'we' small wanjikus shareholders of Brook Bond (sp) were bought a decade ago - thereabouts - haki aliongea mbaya. Wacha tu. Time teaches & heals everything.

Whoa! What did I do?
Unilever offered a low price (14/-?) for the shares BUT it was their choice to offer what they want. Some minorities remained shareholders in Unilever Tea and have received some decent dividends.
Same with Seaboard and Unga. I remain a minority in Unga but if I am offered a "fair" price then I will bail out.
And Marshalls which recently sold its stake in AVA for 800mn+...

KK: One can probably remain as a minority if Rubis doesn't get 90% but I choose to "leave" KK at 23/- given there are some sweet bargains out there.

A cheetah never changes its stripes. Huyu mzee bado anaongea mbaya tena sana, na ameibiwa! Sold short. He will never tell you his ABP

Interesting. I don't sit around calculating ABPs though I may have an idea.
It's not a relevant metric though I may refer to it at times to calculate a return.

I sold my KQ and bought KK.
So you recommend I buy KQ with the proceeds from KK?
If yes, why?

You bought KQ at KES 41 and sold at KES 14. Then used the proceeds to buy KK at KES 18.5 which you have been hustled out of at KES 23. Considering entire trail of the two investments, you are in a net cash loss position and you know it, hence the poems :)
Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
OK.
But now what should I do?
Should I use my KK cash to buy KQ at the super-discounted price of 5.25?
Will KQ help me recover my losses from the debacles above?

Please, please Prophet Jakom Owuor Obiero, send me a sign!

*For anyone who doesn't know my online relationship with @Obiero, please do not refer to this exchange as research or recommendation*

Touching allqueer right now is tantamount to chaising a rattled black mamba down a hole with your m*jlubengbeng full blazing💥☃️🌚 Once the fireworks simmers, don't mind walking away with a limping, mulled and baleeding third leg.
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
VituVingiSana
#506 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2019 1:13:02 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 15,264
Location: Nairobi
Dear Wazuans,

I posted the post below on 4th March 2018. It is now almost 1 year to the day!

The funds are "NDANI" as we say.
Thanks to this fortunate provenance, a lot of mis-investments have been fixed.

Thank you to Rubis, Ohana, KenolKobil, brokers, advisors/research analysts, etc.
Thank you to those who kept the faith and encouraged me to keep the faith.
If I have hurt anyone's feelings with my ardent defense of KK, I hope you find it in your heart to forgive me.

I shall now "retire" from this thread given I no longer have an interest/shareholding in KenolKobil. Unless Rubis cross-lists in Kenya or KK re-lists on the NSE, I shall remain, at most, a customer and well-wisher of KK.

I hope I can find another KK amongst what is left at the NSE. If yes, then let us meet at that forum.

Adios Amigos.

VVS

*Image of VVS riding into the sunset

VituVingiSana wrote:
The "2015" subject header has been overtaken by events hence the new thread.

KK's financial strength has changed substantially since 2015:
- Disposal of loss-making assets in Tanzania and DRC
- Substantial reduction in the level of debt. [Effectively the KES debt is zero]
- Consolidation of the business followed by expansion [new stations]
- KK is back in the OTS market with USD financiers willing to lend
- Cheaper financing from Dutch banks (vs French banks)
- KK is back into jet fuel in a big way [except supplying KQ which is still cash-strapped]
- Provision/settlement for KPRL/KPC debt and lawsuits
- Biwott is no more

KK is entering a new era of profitable growth [though there's a limit unless KK can expand regionally] and there's potential for a takeover given Ohana has cleaned the books and Biwott's kids may have little interest in "owning" KK.

There are some challenges e.g.
- The VAT coming in Sep will increase financing costs
- The VAT would increase the price which will lower demand
- The VAT will make smuggling/dumping of fuel more attractive. The KRA cannot stamp out smuggling when its officers (& police) are part of the problem
- Competition esp Vivo and Total

My Bottomline: KK will do well with or without a takeover.

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#507 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2019 1:37:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,018
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
E.F.T pap

Applause Firms that make money and pay dividends. Hah! Some folks were asking why I own KK and not some “high flying” stocks that have been “turning around” for years! 😂
Ohana said during the AGM that he expects KK will have a great 1H 👍🏽


Kk, the gift that keeps on giving.
DancingDancingDancing Brother!


Yeah! Let's goo!!! Mine has also hit the account.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
heri
#508 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2019 1:54:58 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 652
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Dear Wazuans,

I posted the post below on 4th March 2018. It is now almost 1 year to the day!

The funds are "NDANI" as we say.
Thanks to this fortunate provenance, a lot of mis-investments have been fixed.

Thank you to Rubis, Ohana, KenolKobil, brokers, advisors/research analysts, etc.
Thank you to those who kept the faith and encouraged me to keep the faith.
If I have hurt anyone's feelings with my ardent defense of KK, I hope you find it in your heart to forgive me.

I shall now "retire" from this thread given I no longer have an interest/shareholding in KenolKobil. Unless Rubis cross-lists in Kenya or KK re-lists on the NSE, I shall remain, at most, a customer and well-wisher of KK.

I hope I can find another KK amongst what is left at the NSE. If yes, then let us meet at that forum.

Adios Amigos.

VVS

*Image of VVS riding into the sunset

VituVingiSana wrote:
The "2015" subject header has been overtaken by events hence the new thread.

KK's financial strength has changed substantially since 2015:
- Disposal of loss-making assets in Tanzania and DRC
- Substantial reduction in the level of debt. [Effectively the KES debt is zero]
- Consolidation of the business followed by expansion [new stations]
- KK is back in the OTS market with USD financiers willing to lend
- Cheaper financing from Dutch banks (vs French banks)
- KK is back into jet fuel in a big way [except supplying KQ which is still cash-strapped]
- Provision/settlement for KPRL/KPC debt and lawsuits
- Biwott is no more

KK is entering a new era of profitable growth [though there's a limit unless KK can expand regionally] and there's potential for a takeover given Ohana has cleaned the books and Biwott's kids may have little interest in "owning" KK.

There are some challenges e.g.
- The VAT coming in Sep will increase financing costs
- The VAT would increase the price which will lower demand
- The VAT will make smuggling/dumping of fuel more attractive. The KRA cannot stamp out smuggling when its officers (& police) are part of the problem
- Competition esp Vivo and Total

My Bottomline: KK will do well with or without a takeover.



Thanks VVS. Thanks to you we have also 'eaten' something. I bought, then sold a year ago due to other committments , bought again and so i still got to 'eat' something. So if there is an mpesa no where we need to 'appreciate' you, let us know.

Question is which other 'KK' can we get in the market to take up the funds from Rubis

MaichBlack
#509 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2019 4:12:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,229
VituVingiSana wrote:
peep wrote:
No mulla yet!! Is I&M sitting on my small ingot?

Stanbic Bank is sending the moola in batches. They have upto 15 days from the date of the approval.

Pesa iko ndaaaani, ndani, ndani!!! Ndaaaaaani!!!

100%. Not a single cent deducted.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
MaichBlack
#510 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2019 4:16:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,229
mlennyma wrote:
Pesa Nane wrote:

Are we interested and we have been bought?

I was wondering the same!!!

May be it is for the 3% who still hold on. For now

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
MaichBlack
#511 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2019 4:21:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,229
VituVingiSana wrote:
Dear Wazuans,

I posted the post below on 4th March 2018. It is now almost 1 year to the day!

The funds are "NDANI" as we say.
Thanks to this fortunate provenance, a lot of mis-investments have been fixed.

Thank you to Rubis, Ohana, KenolKobil, brokers, advisors/research analysts, etc.
Thank you to those who kept the faith and encouraged me to keep the faith.
If I have hurt anyone's feelings with my ardent defense of KK, I hope you find it in your heart to forgive me.

I shall now "retire" from this thread given I no longer have an interest/shareholding in KenolKobil. Unless Rubis cross-lists in Kenya or KK re-lists on the NSE, I shall remain, at most, a customer and well-wisher of KK.

I hope I can find another KK amongst what is left at the NSE. If yes, then let us meet at that forum.

Adios Amigos.

VVS

*Image of VVS riding into the sunset

VituVingiSana wrote:
The "2015" subject header has been overtaken by events hence the new thread.

KK's financial strength has changed substantially since 2015:
- Disposal of loss-making assets in Tanzania and DRC
- Substantial reduction in the level of debt. [Effectively the KES debt is zero]
- Consolidation of the business followed by expansion [new stations]
- KK is back in the OTS market with USD financiers willing to lend
- Cheaper financing from Dutch banks (vs French banks)
- KK is back into jet fuel in a big way [except supplying KQ which is still cash-strapped]
- Provision/settlement for KPRL/KPC debt and lawsuits
- Biwott is no more

KK is entering a new era of profitable growth [though there's a limit unless KK can expand regionally] and there's potential for a takeover given Ohana has cleaned the books and Biwott's kids may have little interest in "owning" KK.

There are some challenges e.g.
- The VAT coming in Sep will increase financing costs
- The VAT would increase the price which will lower demand
- The VAT will make smuggling/dumping of fuel more attractive. The KRA cannot stamp out smuggling when its officers (& police) are part of the problem
- Competition esp Vivo and Total

My Bottomline: KK will do well with or without a takeover.


Thank you @vvs. You have been a great driver of this bus and made most of us hold on and even add substantially more shares even when the going was rough and some fellows here were making fun of us!!!

My money is now in the bank and I will be re-investing it pap because I know the power of compounding!! The much I have made I multiply it even more.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
MaichBlack
#512 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2019 4:24:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,229
I can take my kids somewhere on a KQ flight so that Obiero also benefits from this somehow.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
xtina
#513 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2019 4:37:55 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/26/2008
Posts: 239
MaichBlack wrote:
I can take my kids somewhere on a KQ flight so that Obiero also benefits from this somehow.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly



Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Instead put it in KCB or any other solid stock and later in life they will afford to buy a KQ plane
MaichBlack
#514 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2019 4:41:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,229
xtina wrote:
MaichBlack wrote:
I can take my kids somewhere on a KQ flight so that Obiero also benefits from this somehow.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly



Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Instead put it in KCB or any other solid stock and later in life they will afford to buy a KQ plane

True dat. That has always be the plan.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
MaichBlack
#515 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2019 4:54:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,229
@vvs - Please get us some other gems. And don't worry, my kids are looooong term investors. Weka list hapa tafadhali.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
murchr
#516 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2019 4:59:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 14,094
MaichBlack wrote:
@vvs - Please get us some other gems. And don't worry, my kids are looooong term investors. Weka list hapa tafadhali.


The struggle - Having slaves you dont know where to place them for work
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Kaufman
#517 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2019 5:53:33 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/29/2010
Posts: 22
@VVS. You are highly appreciated. Will be following you unto the next bus.
obiero
#518 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2019 6:16:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 11,061
Location: nairobi
Kaufman wrote:
@VVS. You are highly appreciated. Will be following you unto the next bus.

KURWITU? FTG? ARM?
COOP 5,500; KCB 3,700; KQ 96,100
xxxxx
#519 Posted : Thursday, March 14, 2019 9:41:20 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/20/2008
Posts: 371
obiero wrote:
Kaufman wrote:
@VVS. You are highly appreciated. Will be following you unto the next bus.

KURWITU? FTG? ARM?


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Monk
#520 Posted : Friday, March 15, 2019 8:53:09 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/1/2009
Posts: 62
MaichBlack wrote:
@vvs - Please get us some other gems. And don't worry, my kids are looooong term investors. Weka list hapa tafadhali.


@vvs primarily looks for growth stocks, and is very good at it, regardless of what @Obiero says. I've personally benefited from trailing some of his choices.

If you are not salaried, you might want to add some dividend stocks to your portfolio, unless you have adequate alternative passive incomes. SCBK and BBK come to mind on this score.
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